The model gives Anaheim 45 percent at home, so it leans Ottawa at the start with no crowd picks in yet. At 0-0 with under a minute gone, the number to watch is whether the crowd moves toward the Ducks.
NHL · · Honda Center · every National Hockey League line
Ottawa Senators vs Anaheim Ducks: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreSenators 3, Ducks 6 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerSenators 55%
- Model spreadeven total 7
- Margin3
- Total9 projected 7
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Ottawa Senators or Anaheim Ducks: the bandwagon
Axle 55–45Market 53–47
FinalPregame: ANA 45%Baseline: ANA 45.1% (+0.0)Big swing: 29.7 ptsClutch window: 2:25
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| ANA | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Shots
OTT 22ANA 33
Ottawa Senators at Anaheim Ducks win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.9 points for ANA over the last 5:00
Big swing29.7 ptstoward ANA at 41:49 of game time
Clutch window2:25within 1 goals in the final period
BaselineANA 45.1%game average, +0.0 points from the pregame 45.0%
Ottawa Senators vs Anaheim Ducks live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | OTT | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | OTT22 | ANA33 |
| Hits | OTT17 | ANA24 |
| Blocked shots | OTT11 | ANA15 |
| Power play | OTT0/3 | ANA4/5 |
| Faceoff win | OTT58.6% | ANA41.4% |
| Takeaways | OTT3 | ANA5 |
| Giveaways | OTT20 | ANA18 |
| Penalty minutes | OTT15 | ANA12 |
Ottawa Senators vs Anaheim Ducks team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | OTT | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT3 | ANA6 |
| Average win probability | OTT55% | ANA45% |
| Longest scoring run | OTT+3 | ANA+6 |
| Time leading | OTT33:17 | ANA17:16 |
Ottawa Senators vs Anaheim Ducks model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET
Senators55%
Win chanceDucks45%
SpreadPKclosing model spread
Total7
Moneyline−122away / +122homeaway / home
Line movementANA win chance, 17 stored lines
−1 pts for ANA between Oct 28 and Nov 1
51%40%
Oct 28Oct 30Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | ANA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:44 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:56 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:46 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:42 PM ET | 45% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 1:00 AM ET | 46% | +1 |
| Oct 30, 12:50 AM ET | 45% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:44 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:14 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 46% | — |
- Ratings
- ANA 1467 · OTT 1526
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET · 2026-11-01 10:02 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Ottawa Senators 3, Anaheim Ducks 6. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 29, 10:43 PM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
SenatorsDucks
Neutrals only–
SenatorsDucks
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Ducks–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Senators vs Ducks odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NHL marketKalshi had the Senators at 53% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 54% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 55% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | OTT | ANA | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 53% | 47% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 54% | 46% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 55% | 45% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, ANA: +2Polymarket minus model, ANA: +1
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Ottawa Senators vs Anaheim Ducks prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Senators the favorite, with a 55% chance to win; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 7. Ratings: Ducks 1476 (23rd of 32), Senators 1520 (12th). The Ducks are 7-7-1 in the Pacific Division; the Senators are 9-6-1 in the Atlantic Division. The Ducks have won 3 of their last 5; the Senators 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Ducks won 3, the Senators 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Ottawa Senators
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Buffalo Sabres | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Anaheim Ducks | L 3–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Jose Sharks | W 5–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Los Angeles Kings | L 5–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Vegas Golden Knights | L 1–4 | – | – | matchup |
Anaheim Ducks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Vancouver Canucks | W 5–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ottawa Senators | W 6–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Buffalo Sabres | L 6–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Vancouver Canucks | L 5–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Philadelphia Flyers | W 5–4 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anaheim Ducks at Ottawa Senators | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Ottawa Senators at Anaheim Ducks | 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Anaheim Ducks at Ottawa Senators | 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| Ottawa Senators at Anaheim Ducks | 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Ottawa Senators at Anaheim Ducks | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Anaheim Ducks at Ottawa Senators | 5–1 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Ottawa Senators: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Anaheim Ducks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Senators9-6-1 Atlantic Division, 4th · L1
- Senators rating1520 12th of 32, 16 games
- Ducks7-7-1 Pacific Division, 4th · W2
- Ducks rating1476 23rd of 32, 15 games
Ottawa Senators 9-6-1
National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 4th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $SENATORS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $SENATORS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $SENATORS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $SENATORS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Ottawa Senators bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Anaheim Ducks 7-7-1
National Hockey League · Pacific Division · 4th · streak W2
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $DUCKS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $DUCKS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $DUCKS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $DUCKS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Anaheim Ducks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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