Ottawa 5, San Jose 1. The model had the Sharks at 44 percent at home, so the numbers leaned toward the road side, and a four-goal margin is a story, not noise.
NHL · · SAP Center · every National Hockey League line
Ottawa Senators vs San Jose Sharks: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreSenators 5, Sharks 1 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerSenators 56%
- Pregame Projected scoreSenators 3.5, Sharks 3.0
- Model spreadSenators −0.5 total 6.5
- Margin4 projected 0.5
- Total6 projected 6.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Ottawa Senators or San Jose Sharks: the bandwagon
Axle 56–44Market 58–42
FinalPregame: SJ 44%Baseline: SJ 20.6% (−23.1)Big swing: 20.8 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| SJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Shots
OTT 35SJ 22
Ottawa Senators at San Jose Sharks win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for SJ over the last 5:00
Big swing20.8 ptstoward OTT at 25:02 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 1 goals in the final period
BaselineSJ 20.6%game average, −23.1 points from the pregame 43.6%
Ottawa Senators vs San Jose Sharks live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | OTT | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | OTT35 | SJ22 |
| Hits | OTT14 | SJ24 |
| Blocked shots | OTT9 | SJ18 |
| Power play | OTT0/3 | SJ0/3 |
| Faceoff win | OTT54.8% | SJ45.2% |
| Takeaways | OTT4 | SJ2 |
| Giveaways | OTT13 | SJ20 |
| Penalty minutes | OTT8 | SJ18 |
Ottawa Senators vs San Jose Sharks team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | OTT | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT5 | SJ1 |
| Average win probability | OTT79% | SJ21% |
| Longest scoring run | OTT+4 | SJ+1 |
| Time leading | OTT35:47 | SJ0:00 |
Ottawa Senators vs San Jose Sharks model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET
Senators56%
Win chanceSharks44%
SpreadOTT −0.5closing model spread
Total6.5
Moneyline−129away / +129homeaway / home
Line movementSJ win chance, 12 stored lines
−1 pts for SJ between Oct 28 and Oct 31
50%37%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | SJ win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 1:00 AM ET | 44% | +1 |
| Oct 30, 12:29 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 43% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:44 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:14 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 45% | — |
- Ratings
- SJ 1451 · OTT 1520
- Home spread
- +0.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET · 2026-10-31 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Ottawa Senators 5, San Jose Sharks 1. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 29, 10:43 PM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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SenatorsSharks
Neutrals only–
SenatorsSharks
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Sharks–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Senators vs Sharks odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NHL marketKalshi had the Senators at 58% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 58% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 56% when last read, .
| Source | OTT | SJ | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 58% | 42% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 58% | 42% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 56% | 44% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, SJ: −1Polymarket minus model, SJ: −1
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Ottawa Senators vs San Jose Sharks prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Senators a 0.5-point favorite, with a 56% chance to win. The model total is 6.5. Ratings: Sharks 1441 (30th of 32), Senators 1520 (12th). The Sharks are 7-8-1 in the Pacific Division; the Senators are 9-6-1 in the Atlantic Division. The Sharks have won 1 of their last 5; the Senators 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Sharks won 2, the Senators 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Ottawa Senators
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Anaheim Ducks | L 3–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Jose Sharks | W 5–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Los Angeles Kings | L 5–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Vegas Golden Knights | L 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York Rangers | W 7–4 | – | – | matchup |
San Jose Sharks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Calgary Flames | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ottawa Senators | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Vancouver Canucks | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Buffalo Sabres | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Boston Bruins | L 4–6 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators | 6–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators | 4–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| Ottawa Senators at San Jose Sharks | 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators | 3–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| Ottawa Senators at San Jose Sharks | 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Ottawa Senators at San Jose Sharks | 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Ottawa Senators: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
San Jose Sharks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Senators9-6-1 Atlantic Division, 4th · L1
- Senators rating1520 12th of 32, 16 games
- Sharks7-8-1 Pacific Division, 5th · L2
- Sharks rating1441 30th of 32, 16 games
Ottawa Senators 9-6-1
National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 4th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $SENATORS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $SENATORS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $SENATORS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $SENATORS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Ottawa Senators bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
San Jose Sharks 7-8-1
National Hockey League · Pacific Division · 5th · streak L2
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $SHARKS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $SHARKS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $SHARKS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $SHARKS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San Jose Sharks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Ottawa Senators at San Jose Sharks
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Final: Senators 5, Sharks 1. Bandwagon's model had the Senators at 56% and projected Senators 3.5, Sharks 3.0; spread Senators −0.5, total 6.5. Last read: Kalshi 58%, Polymarket 58% for the Senators.