Pittsburgh Penguins vs San Jose Sharks prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerPenguins 53%
- Projected scorePenguins 3.1, Sharks 2.9
- Model spreadeven total 6
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Pittsburgh Penguins or San Jose Sharks: the bandwagon
Axle 53–47Market 54–46
Pittsburgh Penguins at San Jose Sharks win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs San Jose Sharks live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs San Jose Sharks team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | PIT | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT– | SJ– |
| Average win probability | PIT– | SJ– |
| Longest scoring run | PIT– | SJ– |
| Time leading | PIT– | SJ– |
Pittsburgh Penguins vs San Jose Sharks model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | SJ win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:46 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:46 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:23 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:53 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:43 PM ET | 47% | +1 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:45 PM ET | 46% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:45 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:44 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:56 PM ET | 47% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 9:46 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:42 PM ET | 46% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 12:29 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 47% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 48% | — |
- Ratings
- SJ 1441 · PIT 1489
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET · 2026-11-05 03:21 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Penguins vs Sharks odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NHL marketKalshi prices the Penguins at 52%, Polymarket at 55% (3 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 53%.
Prices read: Kalshi (not de-vigged); Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | PIT | SJ | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 52% | 48% | · not de-vigged | |
| Polymarket | 55% | 45% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 53% | 47% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Pittsburgh Penguins vs San Jose Sharks prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Penguins the favorite, with a 53% chance to win; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 6. Ratings: Sharks 1441 (30th of 32), Penguins 1489 (18th). The Sharks are 7-8-1 in the Pacific Division; the Penguins are 5-8-2 in the Metropolitan Division. The Sharks have won 1 of their last 5; the Penguins 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Sharks won 2, the Penguins 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Vegas Golden Knights | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Montreal Canadiens | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Mammoth | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Nashville Predators | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida Panthers | W 4–0 | – | – | matchup |
San Jose Sharks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Calgary Flames | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ottawa Senators | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Vancouver Canucks | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Buffalo Sabres | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Boston Bruins | L 4–6 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Sharks at Pittsburgh Penguins | 6–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| Pittsburgh Penguins at San Jose Sharks | 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Pittsburgh Penguins at San Jose Sharks | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Jose Sharks at Pittsburgh Penguins | 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Jose Sharks at Pittsburgh Penguins | 3–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| Pittsburgh Penguins at San Jose Sharks | 10–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Pittsburgh Penguins: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
San Jose Sharks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Penguins5-8-2 Metropolitan Division, 7th · L3
- Penguins rating1489 18th of 32, 15 games
- Sharks7-8-1 Pacific Division, 5th · L2
- Sharks rating1441 30th of 32, 16 games
Pittsburgh Penguins 5-8-2
National Hockey League · Metropolitan Division · 7th · streak L3
No stances yet today on $PENGUINS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Pittsburgh Penguins bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
San Jose Sharks 7-8-1
National Hockey League · Pacific Division · 5th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $SHARKS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San Jose Sharks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Penguins 53% to win. Projected score Penguins 3.1, Sharks 2.9; spread even, total 6. Kalshi 52%, Polymarket 55% for the Penguins. Pittsburgh Penguins at San Jose Sharks, Wed, Nov 11, 10:00 PM ET.