Toronto Maple Leafs vs Chicago Blackhawks prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerMaple Leafs 57%
- Projected scoreMaple Leafs 3.4, Blackhawks 3.1
- Model spreadMaple Leafs −0.5 total 6.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Toronto Maple Leafs or Chicago Blackhawks: the bandwagon
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Axle 57–43Market 61–39
Toronto Maple Leafs at Chicago Blackhawks win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Chicago Blackhawks live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Chicago Blackhawks team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | TOR | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR– | CHI– |
| Average win probability | TOR– | CHI– |
| Longest scoring run | TOR– | CHI– |
| Time leading | TOR– | CHI– |
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Chicago Blackhawks model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | CHI win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET | 43% | −1 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 44% | — |
- Ratings
- CHI 1400 · TOR 1473
- Home spread
- +0.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET · 2026-11-05 03:21 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
- Last move
- home 44% → 43%
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Maple Leafs vs Blackhawks odds on Polymarket
Every NHL marketPolymarket prices the Maple Leafs at 61%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 57%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | TOR | CHI | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 61% | 39% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 57% | 43% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Chicago Blackhawks prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Maple Leafs a 0.5-point favorite, with a 57% chance to win. The model total is 6.5. Ratings: Blackhawks 1403 (31st of 32), Maple Leafs 1473 (24th). The Blackhawks are 4-10-1 in the Central Division; the Maple Leafs are 8-7-2 in the Atlantic Division. The Blackhawks have won 1 of their last 5; the Maple Leafs 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Blackhawks won 3, the Maple Leafs 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Utah Mammoth | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Vancouver Canucks | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Seattle Kraken | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Calgary Flames | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Edmonton Oilers | W 7–2 | – | – | matchup |
Chicago Blackhawks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Florida Panthers | L 3–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Colorado Avalanche | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Boston Bruins | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Detroit Red Wings | L 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Los Angeles Kings | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Blackhawks at Toronto Maple Leafs | 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs at Chicago Blackhawks | 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs at Chicago Blackhawks | 5–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Chicago Blackhawks at Toronto Maple Leafs | 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs at Chicago Blackhawks | 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Chicago Blackhawks at Toronto Maple Leafs | 4–1 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Toronto Maple Leafs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Chicago Blackhawks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Maple Leafs8-7-2 Atlantic Division, 6th · L1
- Maple Leafs rating1473 24th of 32, 17 games
- Blackhawks4-10-1 Central Division, 8th · L3
- Blackhawks rating1403 31st of 32, 15 games
Toronto Maple Leafs 8-7-2
National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 6th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $LEAFS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Toronto Maple Leafs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Chicago Blackhawks 4-10-1
National Hockey League · Central Division · 8th · streak L3
1 stance today on $BLACKHAWKS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Chicago Blackhawks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Toronto Maple Leafs at Chicago Blackhawks
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Model: Maple Leafs 57% to win. Projected score Maple Leafs 3.4, Blackhawks 3.1; spread Maple Leafs −0.5, total 6.5. Polymarket 61% for the Maple Leafs. Toronto Maple Leafs at Chicago Blackhawks, Tue, Nov 17, 7:30 PM ET.