Northern Illinois Huskies vs San José State Spartans prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerSan José State 79%
- Projected scoreSan José State 31, Northern Illinois 19
- Model spreadSan José State −13 total 50
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Northern Illinois Huskies or San José State Spartans: the bandwagon
Axle 21–79Market 22–78
Northern Illinois Huskies at San José State Spartans win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Northern Illinois Huskies vs San José State Spartans live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Northern Illinois Huskies vs San José State Spartans team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | NIU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NIU– | SJSU– |
| Average win probability | NIU– | SJSU– |
| Longest scoring run | NIU– | SJSU– |
| Time leading | NIU– | SJSU– |
Northern Illinois Huskies vs San José State Spartans model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | SJSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:59 AM ET | 79% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:51 PM ET | 78% | −2 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 80% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 79% | −1 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 80% | +1 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 79% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 80% | −3 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 83% | — |
- Ratings
- SJSU 1353 · NIU 1223
- Home spread
- −13
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Northern Illinois vs San José State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Spartans at 78%, Polymarket at 78%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 79%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | NIU | SJSU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 22% | 78% | ||
| Polymarket | 22% | 78% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 21% | 79% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Northern Illinois Huskies vs San José State Spartans prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Spartans a 13-point favorite at home, with a 79% chance to win. The model total is 50. Ratings: Spartans 1353 (120th of 138), Huskies 1223 (135th). The Spartans have won 2 of their last 5; the Huskies 0 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Northern Illinois Huskies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at UNLV Rebels | L 24–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | L 21–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Wyoming Cowboys | L 23–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Air Force Falcons | L 7–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Georgia State Panthers | L 14–35 | – | – | matchup |
San José State Spartans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs New Mexico Lobos | L 16–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nevada Wolf Pack | L 13–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UTEP Miners | W 24–11 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wyoming Cowboys | L 13–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | W 20–16 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Northern Illinois Huskies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
San José State Spartans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Huskies– 10th · L8
- Huskies rating1223 135th of 138, 7 games
- Spartans– 6th · L2
- Spartans rating1353 120th of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 10th · streak L8
No stances yet today on $NIU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Northern Illinois Huskies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 6th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $SJSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San José State Spartans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: San José State 79% to win. Projected score San José State 31, Northern Illinois 19; spread San José State −13, total 50. Kalshi 78%, Polymarket 78% for San José State. Northern Illinois Huskies at San José State Spartans, Sat, Nov 7, 4:00 PM ET.