Final from the Spartans' side of the ledger: New Mexico takes it 21-16 and San José State is down 5. The model had the home side at 21 percent before kickoff, so this one went where the numbers said it would.
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New Mexico Lobos vs San José State Spartans: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreNew Mexico 21, San José State 16 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerNew Mexico 79%
- Pregame Projected scoreNew Mexico 30, San José State 17
- Model spreadNew Mexico −13 total 47.5
- Margin5 projected 13
- Total37 projected 47.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
New Mexico Lobos or San José State Spartans: the bandwagon
Axle 79–21Market 86–14
FinalPregame: SJSU 21%Baseline: SJSU 16.6% (−4.6)Big swing: 18.2 ptsClutch window: 10:47
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNM | 0 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| SJSU | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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New Mexico Lobos at San José State Spartans win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to UNM−4.7 points for SJSU over the last 5:00
Big swing18.2 ptstoward SJSU at 55:15 of game time
Clutch window10:47within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineSJSU 16.6%game average, −4.6 points from the pregame 21.3%
New Mexico Lobos vs San José State Spartans live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | UNM | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | UNM342 | SJSU238 |
| First downs | UNM16 | SJSU15 |
| 3rd down | UNM3/10 | SJSU5/13 |
| 4th down | UNM2/3 | SJSU0/2 |
| Turnovers | UNM3 | SJSU2 |
| Penalties-yards | UNM6-51 | SJSU4-40 |
| Time of possession | UNM31:27 | SJSU28:33 |
New Mexico Lobos vs San José State Spartans team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | UNM | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UNM21 | SJSU16 |
| Average win probability | UNM83% | SJSU17% |
| Longest scoring run | UNM+14 | SJSU+15 |
| Time leading | UNM39:34 | SJSU8:57 |
New Mexico Lobos vs San José State Spartans model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET
Lobos79%
Win chanceSpartans21%
SpreadUNM −13closing model spread
Total47.5
Moneyline−371away / +371homeaway / home
Line movementSJSU win chance, 23 stored lines
+3 pts for SJSU between Oct 28 and Oct 31
27%12%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | SJSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 21% | +3 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 18% | — |
- Ratings
- SJSU 1364 · UNM 1603
- Home spread
- +13
- Stored
- Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET · 2026-10-31 22:46 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: New Mexico Lobos 21, San José State Spartans 16. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 5:30 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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LobosSpartans
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LobosSpartans
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Spartans–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
New Mexico vs San José State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Lobos at 86% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 86% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 79% when last read, .
| Source | UNM | SJSU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 86% | 14% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 86% | 14% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 79% | 21% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, SJSU: −7Polymarket minus model, SJSU: −7
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
New Mexico Lobos vs San José State Spartans prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lobos a 13-point favorite, with a 79% chance to win. The model total is 47.5. Ratings: Spartans 1353 (120th of 138), Lobos 1614 (31st). The Spartans have won 2 of their last 5; the Lobos 5 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Spartans won 2, the Lobos 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
New Mexico Lobos
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at San José State Spartans | W 21–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs North Dakota State Bison | W 21–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | W 21–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UTEP Miners | W 61–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Mexico State Aggies | W 42–18 | – | – | matchup |
San José State Spartans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs New Mexico Lobos | L 16–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nevada Wolf Pack | L 13–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UTEP Miners | W 24–11 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wyoming Cowboys | L 13–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | W 20–16 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico Lobos at San José State Spartans | 28–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| San José State Spartans at New Mexico Lobos | 52–24 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
New Mexico Lobos: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
San José State Spartans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Lobos– 1st · W5
- Lobos rating1614 31st of 138, 7 games
- Spartans– 6th · L2
- Spartans rating1353 120th of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 1st · streak W5
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $UNM
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $UNM
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $UNM
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $UNM: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New Mexico Lobos bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 6th · streak L2
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $SJSU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $SJSU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $SJSU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $SJSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San José State Spartans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on New Mexico Lobos at San José State Spartans
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Final: New Mexico 21, San José State 16. Bandwagon's model had the New Mexico at 79% and projected New Mexico 30, San José State 17; spread New Mexico −13, total 47.5. Last read: Kalshi 86%, Polymarket 86% for New Mexico.