UNLV leads Northern Illinois 7-0 with 11 minutes left in the first quarter, and the model has the Rebels at 94 percent. Crowd picks haven't come in yet, so the neutrals are still warming up.
FBS · · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
Northern Illinois Huskies vs UNLV Rebels: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreNorthern Illinois 24, UNLV 31 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerUNLV 94%
- Pregame Projected scoreUNLV 40, Northern Illinois 13
- Model spreadUNLV −27 total 52
- Margin7 projected 27
- Total55 projected 52
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Northern Illinois Huskies or UNLV Rebels: the bandwagon
Axle 6–94Market 7–93
FinalPregame: UNLV 94%Baseline: UNLV 91.8% (−2.1)Big swing: 10.0 ptsClutch window: 15:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIU | 14 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 24 |
| UNLV | 10 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 31 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Northern Illinois Huskies at UNLV Rebels win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to UNLV+8.9 points for UNLV over the last 5:00
Big swing10.0 ptstoward UNLV at 20:16 of game time
Clutch window15:00within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineUNLV 91.8%game average, −2.1 points from the pregame 93.9%
Northern Illinois Huskies vs UNLV Rebels live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | NIU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | NIU493 | UNLV473 |
| First downs | NIU24 | UNLV22 |
| 3rd down | NIU9/17 | UNLV5/11 |
| 4th down | NIU1/1 | UNLV1/1 |
| Turnovers | NIU1 | UNLV2 |
| Penalties-yards | NIU5-50 | UNLV6-75 |
| Time of possession | NIU35:09 | UNLV24:51 |
Northern Illinois Huskies vs UNLV Rebels team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | NIU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NIU24 | UNLV31 |
| Average win probability | NIU8% | UNLV92% |
| Longest scoring run | NIU+10 | UNLV+21 |
| Time leading | NIU8:49 | UNLV38:51 |
Northern Illinois Huskies vs UNLV Rebels model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET
Huskies6%
Win chanceRebels94%
SpreadUNLV −27closing model spread
Total52
Moneyline+1546away / −1546homeaway / home
Line movementUNLV win chance, 31 stored lines
−1 pts for UNLV between Oct 28 and Oct 31
100%88%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | UNLV win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 94% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 95% | — |
- Ratings
- UNLV 1556 · NIU 1227
- Home spread
- −27
- Stored
- Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET · 2026-11-01 03:34 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Northern Illinois Huskies 24, UNLV Rebels 31. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
HuskiesRebels
Neutrals only–
HuskiesRebels
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Rebels–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Northern Illinois vs UNLV odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Rebels at 93% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 93% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 94% when last read, .
| Source | NIU | UNLV | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 7% | 93% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 7% | 93% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 6% | 94% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, UNLV: −1Polymarket minus model, UNLV: −1
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Northern Illinois Huskies vs UNLV Rebels prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Rebels a 27-point favorite at home, with a 94% chance to win. The model total is 52. Ratings: Rebels 1561 (47th of 138), Huskies 1223 (135th). The Rebels have won 4 of their last 5; the Huskies 0 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Northern Illinois Huskies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at UNLV Rebels | L 24–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | L 21–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Wyoming Cowboys | L 23–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Air Force Falcons | L 7–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Georgia State Panthers | L 14–35 | – | – | matchup |
UNLV Rebels
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Northern Illinois Huskies | W 31–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Air Force Falcons | L 31–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs North Dakota State Bison | W 13–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs California Golden Bears | W 39–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Akron Zips | W 38–10 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Northern Illinois Huskies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
UNLV Rebels: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Huskies– 10th · L8
- Huskies rating1223 135th of 138, 7 games
- Rebels– 5th · W1
- Rebels rating1561 47th of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 10th · streak L8
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $NIU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $NIU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $NIU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $NIU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Northern Illinois Huskies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 5th · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $UNLV
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $UNLV
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $UNLV
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $UNLV: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UNLV Rebels bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Northern Illinois Huskies at UNLV Rebels
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Final: Northern Illinois 24, UNLV 31. Bandwagon's model had the UNLV at 94% and projected UNLV 40, Northern Illinois 13; spread UNLV −27, total 52. Last read: Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 93% for UNLV.