North Carolina Tar Heels vs UConn Huskies prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerUConn 63%
- Projected scoreUConn 30, North Carolina 24
- Model spreadUConn −5 total 54
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
North Carolina Tar Heels or UConn Huskies: the bandwagon
Axle 37–63Market 70–30
North Carolina Tar Heels at UConn Huskies win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs UConn Huskies live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs UConn Huskies team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | UNC | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UNC– | CONN– |
| Average win probability | UNC– | CONN– |
| Longest scoring run | UNC– | CONN– |
| Time leading | UNC– | CONN– |
North Carolina Tar Heels vs UConn Huskies model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | CONN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:09 PM ET | 63% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 62% | −4 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 66% | −6 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 72% | — |
- Ratings
- CONN 1488 · UNC 1470
- Home spread
- −5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
North Carolina vs UConn odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Huskies at 30%, Polymarket at 29% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 63%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | UNC | CONN | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 70% | 30% | ||
| Polymarket | 71% | 29% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 37% | 63% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
North Carolina Tar Heels vs UConn Huskies prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Huskies a 5-point favorite at home, with a 63% chance to win. The model total is 54. Ratings: Huskies 1488 (74th of 138), Tar Heels 1470 (79th). The Huskies have won 2 of their last 5; the Tar Heels 2 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Huskies won 1, the Tar Heels 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Miami Hurricanes | L 35–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Syracuse Orange | L 30–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Duke Blue Devils | W 24–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Pittsburgh Panthers | W 21–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish | L 26–37 | – | – | matchup |
UConn Huskies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Air Force Falcons | L 26–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Massachusetts Minutemen | W 35–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Temple Owls | W 34–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Syracuse Orange | L 41–42 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Miami (OH) RedHawks | L 21–24 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UConn Huskies at North Carolina Tar Heels | 27–14 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
North Carolina Tar Heels: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
UConn Huskies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Tar Heels– 11th · L2
- Tar Heels rating1470 79th of 138, 7 games
- Huskies– 2nd · L1
- Huskies rating1488 74th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 11th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $UNC: the share of the crowd ▲ on the North Carolina Tar Heels bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 2nd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $CONN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UConn Huskies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on North Carolina Tar Heels at UConn Huskies
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Model: UConn 63% to win. Projected score UConn 30, North Carolina 24; spread UConn −5, total 54. Kalshi 30%, Polymarket 29% for UConn. North Carolina Tar Heels at UConn Huskies, Sat, Nov 7, 12:00 PM ET.