Miami has jumped out 7-0 in the opening minutes at Chapel Hill, and the model has North Carolina at just 12 percent right now. The crowd hasn't weighed in yet, so the Tar Heels' fans are still holding their breath.
FBS · · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
Miami Hurricanes vs North Carolina Tar Heels: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreMiami 38, North Carolina 35 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerMiami 88%
- Pregame Projected scoreMiami 37, North Carolina 17
- Model spreadMiami −19.5 total 53.5
- Margin3 projected 19.5
- Total73 projected 53.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Miami Hurricanes or North Carolina Tar Heels: the bandwagon
Axle 88–12Market 84–16
FinalPregame: UNC 12%Baseline: UNC 17.5% (+5.4)Big swing: 35.3 ptsClutch window: 14:05
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 7 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 38 |
| UNC | 0 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 35 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to MIA−32.1 points for UNC over the last 5:00
Big swing35.3 ptstoward UNC at 58:22 of game time
Clutch window14:05within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineUNC 17.5%game average, +5.4 points from the pregame 12.2%
Miami Hurricanes vs North Carolina Tar Heels live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | MIA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | MIA416 | UNC407 |
| First downs | MIA25 | UNC27 |
| 3rd down | MIA6/11 | UNC8/11 |
| 4th down | MIA2/2 | UNC2/2 |
| Turnovers | MIA0 | UNC1 |
| Penalties-yards | MIA3-30 | UNC6-37 |
| Time of possession | MIA29:09 | UNC30:51 |
Miami Hurricanes vs North Carolina Tar Heels team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | MIA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIA38 | UNC35 |
| Average win probability | MIA82% | UNC18% |
| Longest scoring run | MIA+14 | UNC+19 |
| Time leading | MIA37:40 | UNC9:35 |
Miami Hurricanes vs North Carolina Tar Heels model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET
Hurricanes88%
Win chanceTar Heels12%
SpreadMIA −19.5closing model spread
Total53.5
Moneyline−722away / +722homeaway / home
Line movementUNC win chance, 29 stored lines
+1 pts for UNC between Oct 28 and Oct 31
18%6%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | UNC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 12% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 11% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 11% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 11% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 11% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 11% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 11% | — |
- Ratings
- UNC 1475 · MIA 1807
- Home spread
- +19.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET · 2026-11-01 03:04 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Miami Hurricanes 38, North Carolina Tar Heels 35. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
HurricanesTar Heels
Neutrals only–
HurricanesTar Heels
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Tar Heels–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Miami vs North Carolina odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Hurricanes at 85% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 83% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 88% when last read, ; the two venues were 2 points apart at those reads.
| Source | MIA | UNC | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 85% | 15% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 83% | 17% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 88% | 12% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, UNC: +3Polymarket minus model, UNC: +5
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Miami Hurricanes vs North Carolina Tar Heels prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Hurricanes a 19.5-point favorite, with a 88% chance to win. The model total is 53.5. Ratings: Tar Heels 1470 (79th of 138), Hurricanes 1812 (2nd). The Tar Heels have won 2 of their last 5; the Hurricanes 5 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Tar Heels won 2, the Hurricanes 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Miami Hurricanes
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at North Carolina Tar Heels | W 38–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Pittsburgh Panthers | W 52–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida State Seminoles | W 43–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Clemson Tigers | W 41–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Central Michigan Chippewas | W 52–3 | – | – | matchup |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Miami Hurricanes | L 35–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Syracuse Orange | L 30–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Duke Blue Devils | W 24–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Pittsburgh Panthers | W 21–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish | L 26–37 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels | 31–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| North Carolina Tar Heels at Miami Hurricanes | 27–24 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Miami Hurricanes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
North Carolina Tar Heels: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Hurricanes– 1st · W8
- Hurricanes rating1812 2nd of 138, 7 games
- Tar Heels– 11th · L2
- Tar Heels rating1470 79th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 1st · streak W8
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $MIA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $MIA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $MIA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $MIA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Miami Hurricanes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 11th · streak L2
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $UNC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $UNC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $UNC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $UNC: the share of the crowd ▲ on the North Carolina Tar Heels bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels
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Final: Miami 38, North Carolina 35. Bandwagon's model had the Miami at 88% and projected Miami 37, North Carolina 17; spread Miami −19.5, total 53.5. Last read: Kalshi 85%, Polymarket 83% for Miami.