New Mexico Lobos vs Nevada Wolf Pack prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerNew Mexico 74%
- Projected scoreNew Mexico 29, Nevada 19
- Model spreadNew Mexico −10.5 total 48.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
New Mexico Lobos or Nevada Wolf Pack: the bandwagon
Axle 74–26Market 77–23
New Mexico Lobos at Nevada Wolf Pack win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
New Mexico Lobos vs Nevada Wolf Pack live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
New Mexico Lobos vs Nevada Wolf Pack team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | UNM | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UNM– | NEV– |
| Average win probability | UNM– | NEV– |
| Longest scoring run | UNM– | NEV– |
| Time leading | UNM– | NEV– |
New Mexico Lobos vs Nevada Wolf Pack model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | NEV win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 26% | −2 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:51 PM ET | 28% | −2 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 30% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 29% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 30% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 29% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 30% | +1 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 29% | −1 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 30% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 29% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 30% | — |
- Ratings
- NEV 1412 · UNM 1614
- Home spread
- +10.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
New Mexico vs Nevada odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Lobos at 77%, Polymarket at 77%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 74%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | UNM | NEV | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 77% | 23% | ||
| Polymarket | 77% | 23% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 74% | 26% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
New Mexico Lobos vs Nevada Wolf Pack prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lobos a 10.5-point favorite, with a 74% chance to win. The model total is 48.5. Ratings: Wolf Pack 1412 (98th of 138), Lobos 1614 (31st). The Wolf Pack have won 2 of their last 5; the Lobos 5 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Wolf Pack won 1, the Lobos 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
New Mexico Lobos
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at San José State Spartans | W 21–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs North Dakota State Bison | W 21–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | W 21–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UTEP Miners | W 61–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Mexico State Aggies | W 42–18 | – | – | matchup |
Nevada Wolf Pack
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at UCLA Bruins | L 0–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San José State Spartans | W 28–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| at North Dakota State Bison | L 17–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UTEP Miners | W 30–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Air Force Falcons | L 33–36 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada Wolf Pack at New Mexico Lobos | 22–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| New Mexico Lobos at Nevada Wolf Pack | 24–34 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
New Mexico Lobos: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Nevada Wolf Pack: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Lobos– 1st · W5
- Lobos rating1614 31st of 138, 7 games
- Wolf Pack– 7th · L1
- Wolf Pack rating1412 98th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 1st · streak W5
No stances yet today on $UNM: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New Mexico Lobos bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 7th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $NEV: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Nevada Wolf Pack bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on New Mexico Lobos at Nevada Wolf Pack
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Model: New Mexico 74% to win. Projected score New Mexico 29, Nevada 19; spread New Mexico −10.5, total 48.5. Kalshi 77%, Polymarket 77% for New Mexico. New Mexico Lobos at Nevada Wolf Pack, Fri, Nov 6, 9:00 PM ET.