Air Force Falcons vs New Mexico Lobos prediction, odds and picks, November 27, 2026
Air Force at New Mexico: Bandwagon's model makes New Mexico a 76% favorite (New Mexico −11.5).
Air Force Falcons vs New Mexico Lobos odds and win probability
Axle gives New Mexico a 76% chance to win, by about 11 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has New Mexico
All CFB ratings| AF | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1530 59th of 138 | 1638 25th of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W2 | W6 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | UNM win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 76% | — |
Air Force Falcons vs New Mexico Lobos prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lobos a 11.5-point favorite at home, with a 76% chance to win. The model total is 49.5. Ratings: Lobos 1638 (25th of 138), Falcons 1530 (59th). The Lobos have won 5 of their last 5; the Falcons 4 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Lobos won 2, the Falcons 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Air Force Falcons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Army Black Knights | W 24–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UConn Huskies | W 35–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Wyoming Cowboys | L 14–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UNLV Rebels | W 41–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Northern Illinois Huskies | W 28–7 | – | – | matchup |
New Mexico Lobos
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Nevada Wolf Pack | W 31–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San José State Spartans | W 21–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs North Dakota State Bison | W 21–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | W 21–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UTEP Miners | W 61–7 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico Lobos at Air Force Falcons | 20–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Air Force Falcons at New Mexico Lobos | 37–52 | – | – | matchup | |
| New Mexico Lobos at Air Force Falcons | 3–35 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Air Force Falcons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
New Mexico Lobos: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Falcons– 3rd · W2
- Falcons rating1530 59th of 138, 8 games
- Lobos– 1st · W6
- Lobos rating1638 25th of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 3rd · streak W2
No stances yet today on $AF: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Air Force Falcons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 1st · streak W6
No stances yet today on $UNM: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New Mexico Lobos bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Air Force Falcons at New Mexico Lobos
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: New Mexico 76% to win. Projected score New Mexico 30, Air Force 19; spread New Mexico −11.5, total 49.5. Air Force Falcons at New Mexico Lobos, Fri, Nov 27, 4:30 PM ET.