Sacramento State Hornets vs Central Michigan Chippewas prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerCentral Michigan 76%
- Projected scoreCentral Michigan 30, Sacramento State 19
- Model spreadCentral Michigan −11 total 49.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Sacramento State Hornets or Central Michigan Chippewas: the bandwagon
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Axle 24–76Market 14–86
Sacramento State Hornets at Central Michigan Chippewas win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Sacramento State Hornets vs Central Michigan Chippewas live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Sacramento State Hornets vs Central Michigan Chippewas team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | SAC | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SAC– | CMU– |
| Average win probability | SAC– | CMU– |
| Longest scoring run | SAC– | CMU– |
| Time leading | SAC– | CMU– |
Sacramento State Hornets vs Central Michigan Chippewas model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | CMU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 76% | −5 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 81% | −5 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 86% | — |
- Ratings
- CMU 1390 · SAC 1285
- Home spread
- −11
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Sacramento State vs Central Michigan odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Chippewas at 85%, Polymarket at 87% (2 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 76%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | SAC | CMU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 15% | 85% | ||
| Polymarket | 13% | 87% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 24% | 76% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Sacramento State Hornets vs Central Michigan Chippewas prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Chippewas a 11-point favorite at home, with a 76% chance to win. The model total is 49.5. Ratings: Chippewas 1390 (108th of 138), Hornets 1285 (130th). The Chippewas have won 1 of their last 5; the Hornets 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Sacramento State Hornets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Kent State Golden Flashes | W 31–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Ball State Cardinals | L 17–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ohio Bobcats | L 7–48 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bowling Green Falcons | L 10–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Massachusetts Minutemen | L 6–35 | – | – | matchup |
Central Michigan Chippewas
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Miami (OH) RedHawks | L 27–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Western Michigan Broncos | L 14–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Ohio Bobcats | L 14–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Akron Zips | W 41–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Miami Hurricanes | L 3–52 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Sacramento State Hornets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Central Michigan Chippewas: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Hornets– 12th · W1
- Hornets rating1285 130th of 138, 8 games
- Chippewas– 9th · L3
- Chippewas rating1390 108th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 12th · streak W1
1 stance today on $SAC: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Sacramento State Hornets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 9th · streak L3
No stances yet today on $CMU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Central Michigan Chippewas bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Central Michigan 76% to win. Projected score Central Michigan 30, Sacramento State 19; spread Central Michigan −11, total 49.5. Kalshi 85%, Polymarket 87% for Central Michigan. Sacramento State Hornets at Central Michigan Chippewas, Wed, Nov 11, 7:30 PM ET.