Scoreless at kickoff, and the model has Sacramento State at 43 percent, so the numbers lean Kent State for now. Crowd picks haven't come in yet, so the neutrals are still quiet on this one.
FBS · · Hornet Stadium · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
Kent State Golden Flashes vs Sacramento State Hornets: final score and how the prediction did, October 30, 2026
- Final scoreKent State 10, Sacramento State 31 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerKent State 57%
- Pregame Projected scoreKent State 26, Sacramento State 23
- Model spreadKent State −3 total 49
- Margin21 projected 3
- Total41 projected 49
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Kent State Golden Flashes or Sacramento State Hornets: the bandwagon
Axle 57–43Market 72–28
FinalPregame: SAC 43%Baseline: SAC 51.8% (+8.8)Big swing: 46.7 ptsClutch window: 5:56
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENT | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| SAC | 0 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 31 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Kent State Golden Flashes at Sacramento State Hornets win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+2.3 points for SAC over the last 5:00
Big swing46.7 ptstoward SAC at 42:02 of game time
Clutch window5:56within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineSAC 51.8%game average, +8.8 points from the pregame 43.0%
Kent State Golden Flashes vs Sacramento State Hornets live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | KENT | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | KENT302 | SAC278 |
| First downs | KENT15 | SAC16 |
| 3rd down | KENT4/13 | SAC6/17 |
| 4th down | KENT1/3 | SAC0/0 |
| Turnovers | KENT5 | SAC1 |
| Penalties-yards | KENT6-46 | SAC10-89 |
| Time of possession | KENT25:13 | SAC34:47 |
Kent State Golden Flashes vs Sacramento State Hornets team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | KENT | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Score | KENT10 | SAC31 |
| Average win probability | KENT48% | SAC52% |
| Longest scoring run | KENT+7 | SAC+36 |
| Time leading | KENT33:11 | SAC18:49 |
Kent State Golden Flashes vs Sacramento State Hornets model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET
Golden Flashes57%
Win chanceHornets43%
SpreadKENT −3closing model spread
Total49
Moneyline−133away / +133homeaway / home
Line movementSAC win chance, 12 stored lines
+7 pts for SAC between Oct 28 and Oct 30
48%30%
Oct 28Oct 29Oct 30
Every stored line
| Stored | SAC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 43% | +7 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 36% | — |
- Ratings
- SAC 1242 · KENT 1337
- Home spread
- +3
- Stored
- Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET · 2026-10-31 03:06 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Kent State Golden Flashes 10, Sacramento State Hornets 31. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 30, 10:34 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
Golden FlashesHornets
Neutrals only–
Golden FlashesHornets
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Hornets–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Kent State vs Sacramento State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Golden Flashes at 72% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 73% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 57% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | KENT | SAC | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 72% | 28% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 73% | 28% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 57% | 43% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, SAC: −14Polymarket minus model, SAC: −15
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Kent State Golden Flashes vs Sacramento State Hornets prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Golden Flashes a 3-point favorite, with a 57% chance to win. The model total is 49. Ratings: Hornets 1285 (130th of 138), Golden Flashes 1294 (129th). The Hornets have won 1 of their last 5; the Golden Flashes 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Kent State Golden Flashes
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Sacramento State Hornets | L 10–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Akron Zips | W 35–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| at South Florida Bulls | L 2–29 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Western Michigan Broncos | L 7–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ohio Bobcats | L 10–13 | – | – | matchup |
Sacramento State Hornets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Kent State Golden Flashes | W 31–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Ball State Cardinals | L 17–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ohio Bobcats | L 7–48 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bowling Green Falcons | L 10–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Massachusetts Minutemen | L 6–35 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Kent State Golden Flashes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Sacramento State Hornets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Golden Flashes– 10th · L1
- Golden Flashes rating1294 129th of 138, 8 games
- Hornets– 12th · W1
- Hornets rating1285 130th of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 10th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $KENT
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $KENT
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $KENT
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $KENT: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Kent State Golden Flashes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 12th · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $SAC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $SAC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $SAC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $SAC: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Sacramento State Hornets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Kent State Golden Flashes at Sacramento State Hornets
Sign in to post a take on $KENTSAC261031: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Kent State 10, Sacramento State 31. Bandwagon's model had the Kent State at 57% and projected Kent State 26, Sacramento State 23; spread Kent State −3, total 49. Last read: Kalshi 72%, Polymarket 73% for Kent State.