Air Force Falcons vs Army Black Knights prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerArmy 67%
- Projected scoreArmy 31, Air Force 24
- Model spreadArmy −7 total 55
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Air Force Falcons or Army Black Knights: the bandwagon
Axle 33–67Market 41–59
Air Force Falcons at Army Black Knights win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Air Force Falcons vs Army Black Knights live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Air Force Falcons vs Army Black Knights team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | AF | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| Score | AF– | ARMY– |
| Average win probability | AF– | ARMY– |
| Longest scoring run | AF– | ARMY– |
| Time leading | AF– | ARMY– |
Air Force Falcons vs Army Black Knights model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | ARMY win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 67% | −6 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 73% | −3 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 76% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 78% | +1 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 77% | — |
- Ratings
- ARMY 1553 · AF 1508
- Home spread
- −7
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Air Force vs Army odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Black Knights at 59%, Polymarket at 59%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 67%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | AF | ARMY | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 41% | 59% | ||
| Polymarket | 41% | 59% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 33% | 67% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Air Force Falcons vs Army Black Knights prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Black Knights a 7-point favorite at home, with a 67% chance to win. The model total is 55. Ratings: Black Knights 1553 (53rd of 138), Falcons 1508 (67th). The Black Knights have won 3 of their last 5; the Falcons 4 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Black Knights won 3, the Falcons 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Air Force Falcons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs UConn Huskies | W 35–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Wyoming Cowboys | L 14–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UNLV Rebels | W 41–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Northern Illinois Huskies | W 28–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Navy Midshipmen | W 14–9 | – | – | matchup |
Army Black Knights
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Memphis Tigers | L 22–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tulsa Golden Hurricane | W 38–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida Atlantic Owls | W 56–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tulane Green Wave | W 20–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | L 29–31 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Army Black Knights at Air Force Falcons | 20–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| Air Force Falcons at Army Black Knights | 3–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| Army Black Knights at Air Force Falcons | 23–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Air Force Falcons at Army Black Knights | 13–7 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Air Force Falcons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Army Black Knights: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Falcons– 3rd · W1
- Falcons rating1508 67th of 138, 7 games
- Black Knights– 5th · L1
- Black Knights rating1553 53rd of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 3rd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $AF: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Air Force Falcons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 5th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $ARMY: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Army Black Knights bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Air Force Falcons at Army Black Knights
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Model: Army 67% to win. Projected score Army 31, Air Force 24; spread Army −7, total 55. Kalshi 59%, Polymarket 59% for Army. Air Force Falcons at Army Black Knights, Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 PM ET.