Memphis opens as the 55 percent side in the model while the score sits at 0-0 with 12:27 left in the first. The crowd hasn't weighed in yet, so the Tigers' fans are still waiting on a first sign.
FBS · · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
Army Black Knights vs Memphis Tigers: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreArmy 22, Memphis 49 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerMemphis 55%
- Pregame Projected scoreMemphis 29, Army 27
- Model spreadMemphis −2 total 56
- Margin27 projected 2
- Total71 projected 56
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Army Black Knights or Memphis Tigers: the bandwagon
Axle 45–55Market 34–66
FinalPregame: MEM 55%Baseline: MEM 79.6% (+25.0)Big swing: 21.1 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARMY | 7 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 22 |
| MEM | 14 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 49 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Army Black Knights at Memphis Tigers win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.1 points for MEM over the last 5:00
Big swing21.1 ptstoward ARMY at 21:20 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineMEM 79.6%game average, +25.0 points from the pregame 54.5%
Army Black Knights vs Memphis Tigers live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | ARMY | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | ARMY365 | MEM554 |
| First downs | ARMY18 | MEM27 |
| 3rd down | ARMY3/10 | MEM11/15 |
| 4th down | ARMY1/1 | MEM0/0 |
| Turnovers | ARMY2 | MEM1 |
| Penalties-yards | ARMY4-40 | MEM2-15 |
| Time of possession | ARMY31:55 | MEM28:05 |
Army Black Knights vs Memphis Tigers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | ARMY | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ARMY22 | MEM49 |
| Average win probability | ARMY20% | MEM80% |
| Longest scoring run | ARMY+8 | MEM+14 |
| Time leading | ARMY0:00 | MEM47:54 |
Army Black Knights vs Memphis Tigers model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET
Black Knights45%
Win chanceTigers55%
SpreadMEM −2closing model spread
Total56
Moneyline+120away / −120homeaway / home
Line movementMEM win chance, 29 stored lines
No move
61%49%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | MEM win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 55% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 54% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 55% | — |
- Ratings
- MEM 1562 · ARMY 1591
- Home spread
- −2
- Stored
- Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET · 2026-11-01 03:04 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Army Black Knights 22, Memphis Tigers 49. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
Black KnightsTigers
Neutrals only–
Black KnightsTigers
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Tigers–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Army vs Memphis odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Tigers at 66% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 67% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 55% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | ARMY | MEM | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 34% | 66% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 33% | 67% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 45% | 55% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, MEM: +11Polymarket minus model, MEM: +12
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Army Black Knights vs Memphis Tigers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Tigers a 2-point favorite at home, with a 55% chance to win. The model total is 56. Ratings: Tigers 1600 (33rd of 138), Black Knights 1553 (53rd). The Tigers have won 4 of their last 5; the Black Knights 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Army Black Knights
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Memphis Tigers | L 22–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tulsa Golden Hurricane | W 38–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida Atlantic Owls | W 56–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tulane Green Wave | W 20–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | L 29–31 | – | – | matchup |
Memphis Tigers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Army Black Knights | W 49–22 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs East Carolina Pirates | W 41–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tulane Green Wave | L 17–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UAB Blazers | W 38–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Charlotte 49ers | W 59–8 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Army Black Knights: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Memphis Tigers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Black Knights– 5th · L1
- Black Knights rating1553 53rd of 138, 7 games
- Tigers– 2nd · W2
- Tigers rating1600 33rd of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 5th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $ARMY
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $ARMY
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $ARMY
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $ARMY: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Army Black Knights bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 2nd · streak W2
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $MEM
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $MEM
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $MEM
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $MEM: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Memphis Tigers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Army Black Knights at Memphis Tigers
Sign in to post a take on $ARMYMEM261101: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Army 22, Memphis 49. Bandwagon's model had the Memphis at 55% and projected Memphis 29, Army 27; spread Memphis −2, total 56. Last read: Kalshi 66%, Polymarket 67% for Memphis.