Buffalo Bulls vs Ball State Cardinals prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerBuffalo 71%
- Projected scoreBuffalo 31, Ball State 22
- Model spreadBuffalo −9 total 53.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Buffalo Bulls or Ball State Cardinals: the bandwagon
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Axle 71–29Market 61–39
Buffalo Bulls at Ball State Cardinals win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Buffalo Bulls vs Ball State Cardinals live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Buffalo Bulls vs Ball State Cardinals team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | BUF | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF– | BALL– |
| Average win probability | BUF– | BALL– |
| Longest scoring run | BUF– | BALL– |
| Time leading | BUF– | BALL– |
Buffalo Bulls vs Ball State Cardinals model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | BALL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:31 PM ET | 29% | −1 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 30% | −3 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 33% | −3 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 36% | −1 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 37% | — |
- Ratings
- BALL 1293 · BUF 1476
- Home spread
- +9
- Stored
- Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET · 2026-11-05 10:04 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 5, 10:02 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Buffalo vs Ball State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Bulls at 58%, Polymarket at 64% (6 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 71%.
Prices read: Kalshi (not de-vigged); Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | BUF | BALL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 58% | 42% | · not de-vigged | |
| Polymarket | 64% | 36% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 71% | 29% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Buffalo Bulls vs Ball State Cardinals prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bulls a 9-point favorite, with a 71% chance to win. The model total is 53.5. Ratings: Cardinals 1293 (129th of 138), Bulls 1476 (76th). The Cardinals have won 2 of their last 5; the Bulls 4 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Cardinals won 0, the Bulls 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Buffalo Bulls
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Miami (OH) RedHawks | W 34–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Bowling Green Falcons | W 31–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Massachusetts Minutemen | W 25–18 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Toledo Rockets | W 23–8 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Western Michigan Broncos | L 17–20 | – | – | matchup |
Ball State Cardinals
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Massachusetts Minutemen | L 30–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sacramento State Hornets | W 34–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bowling Green Falcons | W 32–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Northwestern Wildcats | L 14–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Toledo Rockets | L 24–39 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ball State Cardinals at Buffalo Bulls | 48–51 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Buffalo Bulls: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Ball State Cardinals: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bulls– 4th · W4
- Bulls rating1476 76th of 138, 7 games
- Cardinals– 8th · W2
- Cardinals rating1293 129th of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 4th · streak W4
No stances yet today on $BUF: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Buffalo Bulls bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 8th · streak W2
1 stance today on $BALL: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Ball State Cardinals bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Buffalo Bulls at Ball State Cardinals
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Model: Buffalo 71% to win. Projected score Buffalo 31, Ball State 22; spread Buffalo −9, total 53.5. Kalshi 58%, Polymarket 64% for Buffalo. Buffalo Bulls at Ball State Cardinals, Wed, Nov 11, 7:30 PM ET.