Memphis Tigers vs South Florida Bulls prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerSouth Florida 57%
- Projected scoreSouth Florida 27, Memphis 24
- Model spreadSouth Florida −2.5 total 50.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Memphis Tigers or South Florida Bulls: the bandwagon
Axle 43–57Market 53–47
Memphis Tigers at South Florida Bulls win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Memphis Tigers vs South Florida Bulls live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Memphis Tigers vs South Florida Bulls team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | MEM | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MEM– | USF– |
| Average win probability | MEM– | USF– |
| Longest scoring run | MEM– | USF– |
| Time leading | MEM– | USF– |
Memphis Tigers vs South Florida Bulls model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | USF win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 57% | −6 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:32 PM ET | 63% | +3 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 60% | −7 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 67% | — |
- Ratings
- USF 1583 · MEM 1600
- Home spread
- −2.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Memphis vs South Florida odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Bulls at 48%, Polymarket at 45% (3 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 57%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | MEM | USF | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 52% | 48% | ||
| Polymarket | 55% | 45% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 43% | 57% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Memphis Tigers vs South Florida Bulls prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bulls a 2.5-point favorite at home, with a 57% chance to win. The model total is 50.5. Ratings: Bulls 1583 (38th of 138), Tigers 1600 (33rd). The Bulls have won 3 of their last 5; the Tigers 4 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Bulls won 0, the Tigers 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Memphis Tigers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Army Black Knights | W 49–22 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs East Carolina Pirates | W 41–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tulane Green Wave | L 17–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UAB Blazers | W 38–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Charlotte 49ers | W 59–8 | – | – | matchup |
South Florida Bulls
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs UAB Blazers | W 30–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kent State Golden Flashes | W 29–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UTSA Roadrunners | L 24–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Temple Owls | L 13–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bowling Green Falcons | W 14–6 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida Bulls at Memphis Tigers | 31–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| Memphis Tigers at South Florida Bulls | 21–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| South Florida Bulls at Memphis Tigers | 50–59 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Memphis Tigers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
South Florida Bulls: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Tigers– 2nd · W2
- Tigers rating1600 33rd of 138, 8 games
- Bulls– 4th · W2
- Bulls rating1583 38th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 2nd · streak W2
No stances yet today on $MEM: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Memphis Tigers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 4th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $USF: the share of the crowd ▲ on the South Florida Bulls bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Memphis Tigers at South Florida Bulls
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Model: South Florida 57% to win. Projected score South Florida 27, Memphis 24; spread South Florida −2.5, total 50.5. Kalshi 48%, Polymarket 45% for South Florida. Memphis Tigers at South Florida Bulls, Thu, Nov 12, 8:00 PM ET.