Kickoff in Tampa and the scoreboard reads 0-0, so there is nothing to argue about yet. The model still gives South Florida an 81 percent chance, and the crowd has not weighed in with a single pick.
FBS · · Raymond James Stadium · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
UAB Blazers vs South Florida Bulls: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreUAB 10, South Florida 30 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerSouth Florida 81%
- Pregame Projected scoreSouth Florida 31, UAB 16
- Model spreadSouth Florida −14.5 total 47
- Margin20 projected 14.5
- Total40 projected 47
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
UAB Blazers or South Florida Bulls: the bandwagon
Axle 19–81Market 27–73
FinalPregame: USF 81%Baseline: USF 77.3% (−3.9)Big swing: 52.0 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAB | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| USF | 0 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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UAB Blazers at South Florida Bulls win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.3 points for USF over the last 5:00
Big swing52.0 ptstoward UAB at 30:00 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineUSF 77.3%game average, −3.9 points from the pregame 81.2%
UAB Blazers vs South Florida Bulls live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | UAB | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | UAB177 | USF237 |
| First downs | UAB10 | USF13 |
| 3rd down | UAB4/16 | USF6/15 |
| 4th down | UAB2/3 | USF0/1 |
| Turnovers | UAB2 | USF0 |
| Penalties-yards | UAB2-20 | USF3-24 |
| Time of possession | UAB27:42 | USF32:18 |
UAB Blazers vs South Florida Bulls team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | UAB | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UAB10 | USF30 |
| Average win probability | UAB23% | USF77% |
| Longest scoring run | UAB+13 | USF+47 |
| Time leading | UAB29:13 | USF30:36 |
UAB Blazers vs South Florida Bulls model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET
Blazers19%
Win chanceBulls81%
SpreadUSF −14.5closing model spread
Total47
Moneyline+434away / −434homeaway / home
Line movementUSF win chance, 17 stored lines
−3 pts for USF between Oct 28 and Oct 31
89%76%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | USF win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 81% | −3 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 84% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 84% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 84% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 84% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 84% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 84% | — |
- Ratings
- USF 1566 · UAB 1414
- Home spread
- −14.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET · 2026-10-31 19:21 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: UAB Blazers 10, South Florida Bulls 30. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 11:30 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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BlazersBulls
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BlazersBulls
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Bulls–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
UAB vs South Florida odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Bulls at 74% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 73% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 81% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | UAB | USF | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 26% | 74% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 27% | 73% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 19% | 81% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, USF: −8Polymarket minus model, USF: −9
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
UAB Blazers vs South Florida Bulls prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bulls a 14.5-point favorite at home, with a 81% chance to win. The model total is 47. Ratings: Bulls 1583 (38th of 138), Blazers 1398 (103rd). The Bulls have won 3 of their last 5; the Blazers 2 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Bulls won 2, the Blazers 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
UAB Blazers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at South Florida Bulls | L 10–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs East Carolina Pirates | W 30–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Memphis Tigers | L 13–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Navy Midshipmen | W 24–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | L 14–21 | – | – | matchup |
South Florida Bulls
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs UAB Blazers | W 30–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kent State Golden Flashes | W 29–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UTSA Roadrunners | L 24–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Temple Owls | L 13–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bowling Green Falcons | W 14–6 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida Bulls at UAB Blazers | 48–18 | – | – | matchup | |
| UAB Blazers at South Florida Bulls | 25–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| South Florida Bulls at UAB Blazers | 35–56 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
UAB Blazers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
South Florida Bulls: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Blazers– 7th · L1
- Blazers rating1398 103rd of 138, 7 games
- Bulls– 4th · W2
- Bulls rating1583 38th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 7th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $UAB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $UAB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $UAB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $UAB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UAB Blazers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 4th · streak W2
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $USF
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $USF
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $USF
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $USF: the share of the crowd ▲ on the South Florida Bulls bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on UAB Blazers at South Florida Bulls
Sign in to post a take on $UABUSF261031: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: UAB 10, South Florida 30. Bandwagon's model had the South Florida at 81% and projected South Florida 31, UAB 16; spread South Florida −14.5, total 47. Last read: Kalshi 74%, Polymarket 73% for South Florida.