Bundesliga odds, Nov 2–8, 2026: Bandwagon's model vs Kalshi and Polymarket
Bandwagon's model has a line on 9 of 9 Bundesliga games Nov 2–8, 2026. Its biggest favorite is Bayern Munich at 71%, against Mainz; its closest game is Eintracht Frankfurt at SC Paderborn 07, 31%–40%. The largest gap with a market is Bayer Leverkusen at FC Cologne: the model gives Bayer Leverkusen 46% and Polymarket 60% (14 points). Model as of Nov 8, 1:28 PM ET; prices as of Nov 8, 1:11 PM ET.
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
Bundesliga Nov 2–8, 2026 slate
9 games| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Model win chance | Model spread | Model total | Kalshi | Polymarket | Crowd | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach at Hamburg SV | Hamburg SV 47% draw 28% | Hamburg SV −0.5 | 3.5 | Hamburg SV 41% | Hamburg SV 40% | – | Borussia Mönchengladbach 1, Hamburg SV 3 model's favorite won | |
| FC Augsburg at RB Leipzig | RB Leipzig 61% draw 23% | RB Leipzig −1 | 4 | RB Leipzig 69% | RB Leipzig 69% | – | FC Augsburg 2, RB Leipzig 5 model's favorite won | |
| Bayern Munich at Mainz | Bayern Munich 71% draw 18% | Bayern Munich −1.5 | 4 | Bayern Munich 78% | Bayern Munich 78% | – | Bayern Munich 2, Mainz 1 model's favorite won | |
| SV Elversberg at Borussia Dortmund | Borussia Dortmund 69% draw 19% | Borussia Dortmund −1.5 | 3 | Borussia Dortmund 74% | Borussia Dortmund 74% | – | SV Elversberg 1, Borussia Dortmund 2 model's favorite won | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt at SC Paderborn 07 | SC Paderborn 07 40% draw 29% | even | 3 | SC Paderborn 07 31% | SC Paderborn 07 31% | – | Eintracht Frankfurt 2, SC Paderborn 07 2 ended level | |
| Werder Bremen at VfB Stuttgart | VfB Stuttgart 60% draw 23% | VfB Stuttgart −1 | 3.5 | VfB Stuttgart 53% | VfB Stuttgart 53% | – | Werder Bremen 0, VfB Stuttgart 1 model's favorite won | |
| Bayer Leverkusen at FC Cologne | Bayer Leverkusen 46% draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen −0.5 | 3.5 | Bayer Leverkusen 58% | Bayer Leverkusen 60% | – | Bayer Leverkusen 2, FC Cologne 1 model's favorite won | |
| 1. FC Union Berlin at SC Freiburg | SC Freiburg 54% draw 26% | SC Freiburg −1 | 3.5 | SC Freiburg 67% | SC Freiburg 67% | – | 1. FC Union Berlin 0, SC Freiburg 2 model's favorite won | |
| Schalke 04 at TSG Hoffenheim | TSG Hoffenheim 53% draw 26% | TSG Hoffenheim −1 | 3 | TSG Hoffenheim 64% | TSG Hoffenheim 63% | – | Schalke 04 1, TSG Hoffenheim 2 model's favorite won |
Kalshi and Polymarket show their implied chance for the side the model favors (the home side where the model has no favorite), from the newest price in the last day; for a game already played, the last price before kickoff. The crowd column is Bandwagon members' picks.
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
The model's record this week
The model's favorite won 8 of 9 finished Bundesliga games that had a favorite (89%), and 1 game ended level. Each line is the one stored before kickoff. The model's record