Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Cologne prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerBayer Leverkusen 46%
- Projected scoreBayer Leverkusen 2.0, FC Cologne 1.5
- Model spreadBayer Leverkusen −0.5 total 3.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bayer Leverkusen or FC Cologne: the bandwagon
Be the first on the bandwagon
Axle 46–26Market 54–24
Bayer Leverkusen at FC Cologne win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Cologne live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Cologne team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | B04 | KOE |
|---|---|---|
| Score | B04– | KOE– |
| Average win probability | B04– | KOE– |
| Longest scoring run | B04– | KOE– |
| Time leading | B04– | KOE– |
Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Cologne model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | KOE win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:33 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:24 AM ET | 26% | +1 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:32 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:27 PM ET | 25% | +2 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 5:25 PM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 23% | −4 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 27% | — |
- Ratings
- KOE 1371 · B04 1506
- Home spread
- +0.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Bundesliga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Cologne odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Bundesliga marketKalshi prices Bayer Leverkusen at 54%, Polymarket at 54%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 46%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | B04 | Draw | KOE | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 54% | 22% | 23% | ||
| Polymarket | 54% | 22% | 24% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 46% | 28% | 26% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Cologne prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bayer Leverkusen a 0.5-point favorite, with a 46% chance to win and a 28% chance of a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: FC Cologne 1371 (16th of 18), Bayer Leverkusen 1506 (5th). The FC Cologne are 2-3-3; the Bayer Leverkusen are 4-3-1. The FC Cologne have won 1 of their last 5; the Bayer Leverkusen 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the FC Cologne won 1, the Bayer Leverkusen 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Bayer Leverkusen
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs VfB Stuttgart | L 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at TSG Hoffenheim | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs SC Freiburg | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Mainz | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs RB Leipzig | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup |
FC Cologne
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at 1. FC Union Berlin | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Schalke 04 | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Hamburg SV | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen at FC Cologne | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Cologne at Bayer Leverkusen | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Bayer Leverkusen at FC Cologne | 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Cologne at Bayer Leverkusen | 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Cologne at Bayer Leverkusen | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Bayer Leverkusen at FC Cologne | 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Bayer Leverkusen: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
FC Cologne: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bayer Leverkusen4-3-1 6th
- Bayer Leverkusen rating1506 5th of 18, 8 games
- FC Cologne2-3-3 13th
- FC Cologne rating1371 16th of 18, 8 games
Bayer Leverkusen 4-3-1
Bundesliga · 6th
No stances yet today on $LEVERKUSEN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Bayer Leverkusen bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
FC Cologne 2-3-3
Bundesliga · 13th
No stances yet today on $COLOGNE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the FC Cologne bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Bayer Leverkusen at FC Cologne
Sign in to post a take on $LEVERKUSENCOLOGNE261108: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
Model: Bayer Leverkusen 46% to win, draw 28%. Projected score Bayer Leverkusen 2.0, FC Cologne 1.5; spread Bayer Leverkusen −0.5, total 3.5. Kalshi 54%, Polymarket 54% for Bayer Leverkusen. Bayer Leverkusen at FC Cologne, Sun, Nov 8, 9:30 AM ET.