Bundesliga opens with Leverkusen and Stuttgart level at 0-0 in the 6th minute. No crowd picks are in yet, and the model sits at 50 percent for the home side, so nothing in the numbers leans either way.
Bundesliga · · BayArena · every Bundesliga line
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreVfB Stuttgart 4, Bayer Leverkusen 2 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerBayer Leverkusen 50%
- Pregame Projected scoreBayer Leverkusen 2.0, VfB Stuttgart 1.5
- Model spreadBayer Leverkusen −0.5 total 3.5
- Margin2 projected 0.5
- Total6 projected 3.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
VfB Stuttgart or Bayer Leverkusen: the bandwagon
Bandwagon
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Axle 23–50Market –
FinalPregame: B04 63%Baseline: B04 21.5% (−41.6)Big swing: 27.6 ptsClutch window: 7:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| VFB | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| B04 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
VFB 36.8%B04 63.2%
VfB Stuttgart at Bayer Leverkusen win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable−0.1 points for B04 over the last 10:00
Big swing27.6 ptstoward VFB at 15:00 of game time
Clutch window7:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineB04 21.5%game average, −41.6 points from the pregame 63.0%
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | VFB | B04 |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | VFB36.8% | B0463.2% |
| Shots | VFB15 | B0424 |
| Shots on target | VFB7 | B048 |
| Corners | VFB3 | B0412 |
| Passes completed | VFB228/319 | B04431/525 |
| Saves | VFB6 | B043 |
| Fouls | VFB13 | B049 |
| Offsides | VFB0 | B041 |
| Yellow cards | VFB4 | B044 |
| Red cards | VFB0 | B040 |
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | VFB | B04 |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VFB4 | B042 |
| Average win probability | VFB79% | B0421% |
| Longest scoring run | VFB+2 | B04+1 |
| Time leading | VFB75:00 | B040:00 |
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET
VfB Stuttgart23%
Win chanceBayer Leverkusen50%
SpreadB04 −0.5closing model spread
Total3.5
Moneyline+326away / +270draw / +102homeaway / draw / home
Line movementB04 win chance, 7 stored lines
−1 pts for B04 between Oct 29 and Oct 31
56%44%
Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | B04 win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 5:25 PM ET | 50% | +1 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 49% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 51% | — |
- Ratings
- B04 1527 · VFB 1492
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET · 2026-10-31 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: VfB Stuttgart 4, Bayer Leverkusen 2. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Bundesliga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 11:30 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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VfB StuttgartBayer Leverkusen
Neutrals only–
VfB StuttgartBayer Leverkusen
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Bayer Leverkusen–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bayer Leverkusen a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 50% chance to win and a 27% chance of a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: Bayer Leverkusen 1506 (5th of 18), VfB Stuttgart 1513 (4th). The Bayer Leverkusen are 4-3-1; the VfB Stuttgart are 3-5. The Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of their last 5; the VfB Stuttgart 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Bayer Leverkusen won 1, the VfB Stuttgart 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
VfB Stuttgart
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Bayer Leverkusen | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atlético Madrid | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Hamburg SV | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at SC Paderborn 07 | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup |
Bayer Leverkusen
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs VfB Stuttgart | L 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at TSG Hoffenheim | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs SC Freiburg | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Mainz | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs RB Leipzig | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen at VfB Stuttgart | 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| VfB Stuttgart at Bayer Leverkusen | 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Bayer Leverkusen at VfB Stuttgart | 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| VfB Stuttgart at Bayer Leverkusen | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| VfB Stuttgart at Bayer Leverkusen | 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Bayer Leverkusen at VfB Stuttgart | 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
VfB Stuttgart: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Bayer Leverkusen: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- VfB Stuttgart3-5 11th
- VfB Stuttgart rating1513 4th of 18, 8 games
- Bayer Leverkusen4-3-1 6th
- Bayer Leverkusen rating1506 5th of 18, 8 games
VfB Stuttgart 3-5
Bundesliga · 11th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $STUTTGART
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $STUTTGART
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $STUTTGART
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $STUTTGART: the share of the crowd ▲ on the VfB Stuttgart bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Bayer Leverkusen 4-3-1
Bundesliga · 6th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $LEVERKUSEN
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $LEVERKUSEN
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $LEVERKUSEN
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $LEVERKUSEN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Bayer Leverkusen bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on VfB Stuttgart at Bayer Leverkusen
Sign in to post a take on $STUTTGARTLEVERKUSE261031: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: VfB Stuttgart 4, Bayer Leverkusen 2. Bandwagon's model had the Bayer Leverkusen at 50% and projected Bayer Leverkusen 2.0, VfB Stuttgart 1.5; spread Bayer Leverkusen −0.5, total 3.5.