Bundesliga, 4' and still goalless between Union Berlin and Cologne, so there is nothing yet to read into. The model sits at 50 percent for the home side and no crowd picks are in, so the sample is empty.
Bundesliga · · Stadion An der Alten Försterei · every Bundesliga line
FC Cologne vs 1. FC Union Berlin: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreFC Cologne 1, 1. FC Union Berlin 1 a draw
- Pregame Projected winner1. FC Union Berlin 50%
- Pregame Projected score1. FC Union Berlin 1.8, FC Cologne 1.3
- Model spread1. FC Union Berlin −0.5 total 3
- Margin0 projected 0.5
- Total2 projected 3
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
FC Cologne or 1. FC Union Berlin: the bandwagon
Bandwagon
Be the first on the bandwagon
Axle 23–50Market –
FinalPregame: FCU 64%Baseline: FCU 81.2% (+17.5)Big swing: 42.0 ptsClutch window: 45:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOE | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| FCU | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
KOE 62.8%FCU 37.2%
FC Cologne at 1. FC Union Berlin win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to KOE−45.6 points for FCU over the last 10:00
Big swing42.0 ptstoward KOE at 81:00 of game time
Clutch window45:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineFCU 81.2%game average, +17.5 points from the pregame 63.7%
FC Cologne vs 1. FC Union Berlin live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | KOE | FCU |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | KOE62.8% | FCU37.2% |
| Shots | KOE14 | FCU5 |
| Shots on target | KOE2 | FCU2 |
| Corners | KOE6 | FCU2 |
| Passes completed | KOE567/637 | FCU293/382 |
| Saves | KOE1 | FCU1 |
| Fouls | KOE10 | FCU11 |
| Offsides | KOE2 | FCU1 |
| Yellow cards | KOE3 | FCU4 |
| Red cards | KOE0 | FCU0 |
FC Cologne vs 1. FC Union Berlin team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | KOE | FCU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | KOE1 | FCU1 |
| Average win probability | KOE19% | FCU81% |
| Longest scoring run | KOE+1 | FCU+1 |
| Time leading | KOE0:00 | FCU70:00 |
FC Cologne vs 1. FC Union Berlin odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET
FC Cologne23%
Win chance1. FC Union Berlin50%
SpreadFCU −0.5closing model spread
Total3
Moneyline+336away / +273draw / −101homeaway / draw / home
Line movementFCU win chance, 10 stored lines
−2 pts for FCU between Oct 29 and Nov 1
58%45%
Oct 29Oct 30Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | FCU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:32 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:27 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 5:25 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 50% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 52% | — |
- Ratings
- FCU 1409 · KOE 1368
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-01 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: FC Cologne 1, 1. FC Union Berlin 1. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Bundesliga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 1, 10:02 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
FC Cologne1. FC Union Berlin
Neutrals only–
FC Cologne1. FC Union Berlin
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, 1. FC Union Berlin–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
FC Cologne vs 1. FC Union Berlin prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the 1. FC Union Berlin a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 50% chance to win and a 27% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: 1. FC Union Berlin 1406 (12th of 18), FC Cologne 1371 (16th). The 1. FC Union Berlin are 1-3-4; the FC Cologne are 2-3-3. The 1. FC Union Berlin have won 1 of their last 5; the FC Cologne 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the 1. FC Union Berlin won 3, the FC Cologne 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
FC Cologne
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at 1. FC Union Berlin | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Schalke 04 | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Hamburg SV | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
1. FC Union Berlin
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs FC Cologne | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at FC Augsburg | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Borussia Dortmund | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs SV Elversberg | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bayern Munich | L 0–7 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne at 1. FC Union Berlin | 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| 1. FC Union Berlin at FC Cologne | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| 1. FC Union Berlin at FC Cologne | 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Cologne at 1. FC Union Berlin | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Cologne at 1. FC Union Berlin | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| 1. FC Union Berlin at FC Cologne | 1–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
FC Cologne: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
1. FC Union Berlin: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- FC Cologne2-3-3 13th
- FC Cologne rating1371 16th of 18, 8 games
- 1. FC Union Berlin1-3-4 16th
- 1. FC Union Berlin rating1406 12th of 18, 8 games
FC Cologne 2-3-3
Bundesliga · 13th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $COLOGNE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $COLOGNE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $COLOGNE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $COLOGNE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the FC Cologne bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
1. FC Union Berlin 1-3-4
Bundesliga · 16th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $UNIONBERLIN
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $UNIONBERLIN
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $UNIONBERLIN
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $UNIONBERLIN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the 1. FC Union Berlin bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on FC Cologne at 1. FC Union Berlin
Sign in to post a take on $COLOGNEUNIONBERLIN261101: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: FC Cologne 1, 1. FC Union Berlin 1. Bandwagon's model had the 1. FC Union Berlin at 50% and projected 1. FC Union Berlin 1.8, FC Cologne 1.3; spread 1. FC Union Berlin −0.5, total 3.