FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerRB Leipzig 61%
- Projected scoreRB Leipzig 2.6, FC Augsburg 1.4
- Model spreadRB Leipzig −1 total 4
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
FC Augsburg or RB Leipzig: the bandwagon
Axle 16–61Market 16–66
FC Augsburg at RB Leipzig win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | FCA | RBL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FCA– | RBL– |
| Average win probability | FCA– | RBL– |
| Longest scoring run | FCA– | RBL– |
| Time leading | FCA– | RBL– |
FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | RBL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:33 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:24 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:32 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:27 PM ET | 61% | +4 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 5:25 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 57% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 59% | — |
- Ratings
- RBL 1525 · FCA 1413
- Home spread
- −1
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Bundesliga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Bundesliga marketKalshi prices RB Leipzig at 67%, Polymarket at 66% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 61%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | FCA | Draw | RBL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 16% | 17% | 67% | ||
| Polymarket | 17% | 17% | 66% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 16% | 23% | 61% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the RB Leipzig a 1-point favorite at home, with a 61% chance to win and a 23% chance of a draw. The model total is 4. Ratings: RB Leipzig 1525 (3rd of 18), FC Augsburg 1413 (10th). The RB Leipzig are 5-3; the FC Augsburg are 2-3-3. The RB Leipzig have won 2 of their last 5; the FC Augsburg 0 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the RB Leipzig won 4, the FC Augsburg 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
FC Augsburg
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs SC Freiburg | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs 1. FC Union Berlin | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at SV Elversberg | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Bayern Munich | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Werder Bremen | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup |
RB Leipzig
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Manchester City | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Schalke 04 | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs SV Elversberg | W 4–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Real Madrid | L 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bayern Munich | L 1–6 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg at RB Leipzig | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| RB Leipzig at FC Augsburg | 6–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| RB Leipzig at FC Augsburg | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Augsburg at RB Leipzig | 0–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| RB Leipzig at FC Augsburg | 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Augsburg at RB Leipzig | 0–3 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
FC Augsburg: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
RB Leipzig: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- FC Augsburg2-3-3 10th
- FC Augsburg rating1413 10th of 18, 8 games
- RB Leipzig5-3 4th
- RB Leipzig rating1525 3rd of 18, 8 games
FC Augsburg 2-3-3
Bundesliga · 10th
No stances yet today on $AUGSBURG: the share of the crowd ▲ on the FC Augsburg bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
RB Leipzig 5-3
Bundesliga · 4th
No stances yet today on $RBLEIPZIG: the share of the crowd ▲ on the RB Leipzig bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on FC Augsburg at RB Leipzig
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Model: RB Leipzig 61% to win, draw 23%. Projected score RB Leipzig 2.6, FC Augsburg 1.4; spread RB Leipzig −1, total 4. Kalshi 67%, Polymarket 66% for RB Leipzig. FC Augsburg at RB Leipzig, Sat, Nov 7, 9:30 AM ET.