Kickoff in Augsburg with the score level at 0-0 and no crowd picks logged yet, so the crowd gives us nothing to read. The model puts Augsburg at 39 percent, which leans toward Freiburg at this stage.
Bundesliga · · WWK Arena · every Bundesliga line
SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreSC Freiburg 2, FC Augsburg 1 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerFC Augsburg 39%
- Pregame Projected scorelevel, 1.8 each draw 29%
- Model spreadeven total 3.5
- Margin1 projected 0
- Total3 projected 3.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
SC Freiburg or FC Augsburg: the bandwagon
Axle 32–39Market –
FinalPregame: FCA 54%Baseline: FCA 66.1% (+12.4)Big swing: 50.4 ptsClutch window: 45:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| SCF | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| FCA | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
SCF 48.6%FCA 51.4%
SC Freiburg at FC Augsburg win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to SCF−51.1 points for FCA over the last 10:00
Big swing50.4 ptstoward SCF at 87:00 of game time
Clutch window45:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineFCA 66.1%game average, +12.4 points from the pregame 53.7%
SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | SCF | FCA |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | SCF48.6% | FCA51.4% |
| Shots | SCF10 | FCA14 |
| Shots on target | SCF2 | FCA5 |
| Corners | SCF2 | FCA1 |
| Passes completed | SCF360/457 | FCA394/485 |
| Saves | SCF4 | FCA0 |
| Fouls | SCF11 | FCA7 |
| Offsides | SCF2 | FCA2 |
| Yellow cards | SCF3 | FCA0 |
| Red cards | SCF0 | FCA0 |
SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | SCF | FCA |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SCF2 | FCA1 |
| Average win probability | SCF34% | FCA66% |
| Longest scoring run | SCF+2 | FCA+1 |
| Time leading | SCF3:00 | FCA47:00 |
SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET
SC Freiburg32%
Win chanceFC Augsburg39%
SpreadPKclosing model spread
Total3.5
Moneyline+215away / +245draw / +155homeaway / draw / home
Line movementFCA win chance, 7 stored lines
−2 pts for FCA between Oct 29 and Oct 31
47%34%
Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | FCA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 5:25 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 39% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 41% | — |
- Ratings
- FCA 1425 · SCF 1459
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET · 2026-10-31 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: SC Freiburg 2, FC Augsburg 1. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Bundesliga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 11:30 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
SC FreiburgFC Augsburg
Neutrals only–
SC FreiburgFC Augsburg
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, FC Augsburg–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the FC Augsburg the favorite, with a 39% chance to win and a 29% chance of a draw; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: FC Augsburg 1413 (10th of 18), SC Freiburg 1471 (6th). The FC Augsburg are 2-3-3; the SC Freiburg are 5-2-1. The FC Augsburg have won 0 of their last 5; the SC Freiburg 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the FC Augsburg won 2, the SC Freiburg 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
SC Freiburg
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at FC Augsburg | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Bayern Munich | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Schalke 04 | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Eintracht Frankfurt | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup |
FC Augsburg
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs SC Freiburg | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs 1. FC Union Berlin | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at SV Elversberg | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Bayern Munich | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Werder Bremen | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg at FC Augsburg | 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Augsburg at SC Freiburg | 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| SC Freiburg at FC Augsburg | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Augsburg at SC Freiburg | 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| SC Freiburg at FC Augsburg | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Augsburg at SC Freiburg | 0–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
SC Freiburg: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
FC Augsburg: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- SC Freiburg5-2-1 3rd
- SC Freiburg rating1471 6th of 18, 8 games
- FC Augsburg2-3-3 10th
- FC Augsburg rating1413 10th of 18, 8 games
SC Freiburg 5-2-1
Bundesliga · 3rd
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $FREIBURG
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $FREIBURG
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $FREIBURG
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $FREIBURG: the share of the crowd ▲ on the SC Freiburg bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
FC Augsburg 2-3-3
Bundesliga · 10th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $AUGSBURG
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $AUGSBURG
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $AUGSBURG
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $AUGSBURG: the share of the crowd ▲ on the FC Augsburg bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on SC Freiburg at FC Augsburg
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