1. FC Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerSC Freiburg 54%
- Projected scoreSC Freiburg 2.2, 1. FC Union Berlin 1.3
- Model spreadSC Freiburg −1 total 3.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
1. FC Union Berlin or SC Freiburg: the bandwagon
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Axle 20–54Market 14–65
1. FC Union Berlin at SC Freiburg win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
1. FC Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
1. FC Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | FCU | SCF |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FCU– | SCF– |
| Average win probability | FCU– | SCF– |
| Longest scoring run | FCU– | SCF– |
| Time leading | FCU– | SCF– |
1. FC Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | SCF win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:33 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:24 AM ET | 54% | +1 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:32 PM ET | 53% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 12:27 PM ET | 54% | +2 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 5:25 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 52% | −5 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 57% | — |
- Ratings
- SCF 1471 · FCU 1406
- Home spread
- −1
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Bundesliga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
1. FC Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Bundesliga marketKalshi prices SC Freiburg at 65%, Polymarket at 65%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 54%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | FCU | Draw | SCF | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 14% | 20% | 65% | ||
| Polymarket | 14% | 21% | 65% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 20% | 26% | 54% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
1. FC Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the SC Freiburg a 1-point favorite at home, with a 54% chance to win and a 26% chance of a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: SC Freiburg 1471 (6th of 18), 1. FC Union Berlin 1406 (12th). The SC Freiburg are 5-2-1; the 1. FC Union Berlin are 1-3-4. The SC Freiburg have won 2 of their last 5; the 1. FC Union Berlin 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the SC Freiburg won 0, the 1. FC Union Berlin 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
1. FC Union Berlin
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs FC Cologne | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at FC Augsburg | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Borussia Dortmund | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs SV Elversberg | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bayern Munich | L 0–7 | – | – | matchup |
SC Freiburg
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at FC Augsburg | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Bayern Munich | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Schalke 04 | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Eintracht Frankfurt | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin at SC Freiburg | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| SC Freiburg at 1. FC Union Berlin | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| 1. FC Union Berlin at SC Freiburg | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| SC Freiburg at 1. FC Union Berlin | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| SC Freiburg at 1. FC Union Berlin | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| 1. FC Union Berlin at SC Freiburg | 0–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
1. FC Union Berlin: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
SC Freiburg: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- 1. FC Union Berlin1-3-4 16th
- 1. FC Union Berlin rating1406 12th of 18, 8 games
- SC Freiburg5-2-1 3rd
- SC Freiburg rating1471 6th of 18, 8 games
1. FC Union Berlin 1-3-4
Bundesliga · 16th
No stances yet today on $UNIONBERLIN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the 1. FC Union Berlin bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
SC Freiburg 5-2-1
Bundesliga · 3rd
No stances yet today on $FREIBURG: the share of the crowd ▲ on the SC Freiburg bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on 1. FC Union Berlin at SC Freiburg
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Model: SC Freiburg 54% to win, draw 26%. Projected score SC Freiburg 2.2, 1. FC Union Berlin 1.3; spread SC Freiburg −1, total 3.5. Kalshi 65%, Polymarket 65% for SC Freiburg. 1. FC Union Berlin at SC Freiburg, Sun, Nov 8, 11:30 AM ET.