Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hamburg SV prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerHamburg SV 47%
- Projected scoreHamburg SV 2.0, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.5
- Model spreadHamburg SV −0.5 total 3.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Borussia Mönchengladbach or Hamburg SV: the bandwagon
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Axle 25–47Market 34–39
Borussia Mönchengladbach at Hamburg SV win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hamburg SV live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hamburg SV team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | BMG | HSV |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BMG– | HSV– |
| Average win probability | BMG– | HSV– |
| Longest scoring run | BMG– | HSV– |
| Time leading | BMG– | HSV– |
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hamburg SV model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | HSV win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:33 PM ET | 47% | −2 |
| Nov 1, 11:24 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:32 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:27 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 5:25 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 49% | −3 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 52% | — |
- Ratings
- HSV 1370 · BMG 1350
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Bundesliga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hamburg SV odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Bundesliga marketKalshi prices Hamburg SV at 39%, Polymarket at 39%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 47%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | BMG | Draw | HSV | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 34% | 26% | 39% | ||
| Polymarket | 34% | 26% | 39% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 25% | 28% | 47% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hamburg SV prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Hamburg SV a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 47% chance to win and a 28% chance of a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: Hamburg SV 1370 (17th of 18), Borussia Mönchengladbach 1350 (18th). The Hamburg SV are 3-5; the Borussia Mönchengladbach are 1-6-1. The Hamburg SV have won 3 of their last 5; the Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Hamburg SV won 0, the Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Borussia Mönchengladbach
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs SC Paderborn 07 | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at VfB Stuttgart | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs TSG Hoffenheim | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at FC Cologne | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Mainz | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup |
Hamburg SV
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Eintracht Frankfurt | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at SC Paderborn 07 | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs VfB Stuttgart | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at TSG Hoffenheim | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs FC Cologne | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach at Hamburg SV | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Hamburg SV at Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Borussia Mönchengladbach: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Hamburg SV: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Borussia Mönchengladbach1-6-1 18th
- Borussia Mönchengladbach rating1350 18th of 18, 8 games
- Hamburg SV3-5 15th
- Hamburg SV rating1370 17th of 18, 8 games
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-6-1
Bundesliga · 18th
No stances yet today on $GLADBACH: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Borussia Mönchengladbach bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Hamburg SV 3-5
Bundesliga · 15th
No stances yet today on $HAMBURG: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Hamburg SV bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Borussia Mönchengladbach at Hamburg SV
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Model: Hamburg SV 47% to win, draw 28%. Projected score Hamburg SV 2.0, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.5; spread Hamburg SV −0.5, total 3.5. Kalshi 39%, Polymarket 39% for Hamburg SV. Borussia Mönchengladbach at Hamburg SV, Fri, Nov 6, 2:30 PM ET.