Bundesliga, early in Hamburg SV at Eintracht Frankfurt, and the board is level at 0-0 in the fourth minute. The model gives Frankfurt 49 percent, a hair under even, and no crowd picks are in yet to weigh against it.
Bundesliga · · Waldstadion · every Bundesliga line
Hamburg SV vs Eintracht Frankfurt: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreHamburg SV 1, Eintracht Frankfurt 3 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerEintracht Frankfurt 49%
- Pregame Projected scoreEintracht Frankfurt 2.0, Hamburg SV 1.5
- Model spreadEintracht Frankfurt −0.5 total 3.5
- Margin2 projected 0.5
- Total4 projected 3.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Hamburg SV or Eintracht Frankfurt: the bandwagon
Bandwagon
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Axle 24–49Market –
FinalPregame: SGE 62%Baseline: SGE 77.4% (+15.2)Big swing: 27.9 ptsClutch window: 23:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| HSV | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| SGE | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
HSV 48.1%SGE 51.9%
Hamburg SV at Eintracht Frankfurt win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.1 points for SGE over the last 10:00
Big swing27.9 ptstoward SGE at 48:00 of game time
Clutch window23:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineSGE 77.4%game average, +15.2 points from the pregame 62.2%
Hamburg SV vs Eintracht Frankfurt live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | HSV | SGE |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | HSV48.1% | SGE51.9% |
| Shots | HSV13 | SGE15 |
| Shots on target | HSV3 | SGE10 |
| Corners | HSV6 | SGE6 |
| Passes completed | HSV293/392 | SGE344/436 |
| Saves | HSV8 | SGE3 |
| Fouls | HSV10 | SGE10 |
| Offsides | HSV3 | SGE2 |
| Yellow cards | HSV4 | SGE2 |
| Red cards | HSV0 | SGE0 |
Hamburg SV vs Eintracht Frankfurt team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | HSV | SGE |
|---|---|---|
| Score | HSV1 | SGE3 |
| Average win probability | HSV23% | SGE77% |
| Longest scoring run | HSV+1 | SGE+3 |
| Time leading | HSV0:00 | SGE46:00 |
Hamburg SV vs Eintracht Frankfurt odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 11:24 AM ET
Hamburg SV24%
Win chanceEintracht Frankfurt49%
SpreadSGE −0.5closing model spread
Total3.5
Moneyline+315away / +265draw / +106homeaway / draw / home
Line movementSGE win chance, 11 stored lines
−1 pts for SGE between Oct 29 and Nov 1
55%43%
Oct 29Oct 30Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | SGE win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 11:24 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:24 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:32 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:27 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 5:25 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 49% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 50% | — |
- Ratings
- SGE 1411 · HSV 1381
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Nov 1, 11:24 AM ET · 2026-11-01 16:24 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Hamburg SV 1, Eintracht Frankfurt 3. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Bundesliga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 1, 2:58 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
Hamburg SVEintracht Frankfurt
Neutrals only–
Hamburg SVEintracht Frankfurt
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Eintracht Frankfurt–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Hamburg SV vs Eintracht Frankfurt prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Eintracht Frankfurt a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 49% chance to win and a 27% chance of a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt 1423 (9th of 18), Hamburg SV 1370 (17th). The Eintracht Frankfurt are 3-3-2; the Hamburg SV are 3-5. The Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2 of their last 5; the Hamburg SV 3 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Eintracht Frankfurt won 0, the Hamburg SV 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Hamburg SV
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Eintracht Frankfurt | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at SC Paderborn 07 | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs VfB Stuttgart | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at TSG Hoffenheim | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs FC Cologne | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Hamburg SV | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Borussia Dortmund | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs FC Cologne | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at RB Leipzig | L 0–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs SC Freiburg | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburg SV at Eintracht Frankfurt | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt at Hamburg SV | 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Hamburg SV: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Eintracht Frankfurt: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Hamburg SV3-5 15th
- Hamburg SV rating1370 17th of 18, 8 games
- Eintracht Frankfurt3-3-2 8th
- Eintracht Frankfurt rating1423 9th of 18, 8 games
Hamburg SV 3-5
Bundesliga · 15th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $HAMBURG
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $HAMBURG
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $HAMBURG
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $HAMBURG: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Hamburg SV bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Eintracht Frankfurt 3-3-2
Bundesliga · 8th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $FRANKFURT
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $FRANKFURT
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $FRANKFURT
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $FRANKFURT: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Eintracht Frankfurt bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Hamburg SV at Eintracht Frankfurt
Sign in to post a take on $HAMBURGFRANKFURT261101: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Hamburg SV 1, Eintracht Frankfurt 3. Bandwagon's model had the Eintracht Frankfurt at 49% and projected Eintracht Frankfurt 2.0, Hamburg SV 1.5; spread Eintracht Frankfurt −0.5, total 3.5.