Bayern Munich vs Mainz prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerBayern Munich 71%
- Projected scoreBayern Munich 2.8, Mainz 1.2
- Model spreadBayern Munich −1.5 total 4
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bayern Munich or Mainz: the bandwagon
Axle 71–11Market 73–13
Bayern Munich at Mainz win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Bayern Munich vs Mainz live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Bayern Munich vs Mainz team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | MUN | M05 |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MUN– | M05– |
| Average win probability | MUN– | M05– |
| Longest scoring run | MUN– | M05– |
| Time leading | MUN– | M05– |
Bayern Munich vs Mainz model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | M05 win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 11% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 11% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 11% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 11% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 11% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:33 PM ET | 11% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:24 AM ET | 11% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 11% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:32 PM ET | 11% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:27 PM ET | 11% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 11% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 5:25 PM ET | 11% | −1 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 12% | — |
- Ratings
- M05 1399 · MUN 1703
- Home spread
- +1.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Bundesliga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Bayern Munich vs Mainz odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Bundesliga marketKalshi prices Bayern Munich at 74%, Polymarket at 73% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 71%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | MUN | Draw | M05 | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 74% | 13% | 13% | ||
| Polymarket | 73% | 14% | 13% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 71% | 18% | 11% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Bayern Munich vs Mainz prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bayern Munich a 1.5-point favorite, with a 71% chance to win and a 18% chance of a draw. The model total is 4. Ratings: Mainz 1399 (13th of 18), Bayern Munich 1703 (1st). The Mainz are 3-4-1; the Bayern Munich are 5-0-3. The Mainz have won 2 of their last 5; the Bayern Munich 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Mainz won 1, the Bayern Munich 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Bayern Munich
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Atlético Madrid | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Borussia Dortmund | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at SC Freiburg | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Arsenal | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs RB Leipzig | W 6–1 | – | – | matchup |
Mainz
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at SV Elversberg | L 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Werder Bremen | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Schalke 04 | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Bayer Leverkusen | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich at Mainz | 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Mainz at Bayern Munich | 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Mainz at Bayern Munich | 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Bayern Munich at Mainz | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Mainz at Bayern Munich | 1–8 | – | – | matchup | |
| Bayern Munich at Mainz | 3–1 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Bayern Munich: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Mainz: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bayern Munich5-0-3 1st
- Bayern Munich rating1703 1st of 18, 8 games
- Mainz3-4-1 9th
- Mainz rating1399 13th of 18, 8 games
Bayern Munich 5-0-3
Bundesliga · 1st
No stances yet today on $BAYERN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Bayern Munich bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Mainz 3-4-1
Bundesliga · 9th
No stances yet today on $MAINZ: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Mainz bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Bayern Munich at Mainz
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Model: Bayern Munich 71% to win, draw 18%. Projected score Bayern Munich 2.8, Mainz 1.2; spread Bayern Munich −1.5, total 4. Kalshi 74%, Polymarket 73% for Bayern Munich. Bayern Munich at Mainz, Sat, Nov 7, 9:30 AM ET.