In soccer, SV Elversberg beat Mainz 4-1 to finish with a margin of 3. The model had the home side at 43 percent, and no crowd picks were recorded for this match.
Bundesliga · · Waldstadion an der Kaiserlinde · every Bundesliga line
Mainz vs SV Elversberg: final score and how the prediction did, October 30, 2026
- Final scoreMainz 1, SV Elversberg 4 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerSV Elversberg 43%
- Pregame Projected scoreSV Elversberg 2.0, Mainz 1.5
- Model spreadSV Elversberg −0.5 total 3.5
- Margin3 projected 0.5
- Total5 projected 3.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Mainz or SV Elversberg: the bandwagon
Axle 28–43Market –
FinalPregame: ELV 57%Baseline: ELV 91.2% (+33.7)Big swing: 22.5 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| M05 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| ELV | 3 | 1 | 4 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
M05 45.9%ELV 54.1%
Mainz at SV Elversberg win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for ELV over the last 10:00
Big swing22.5 ptstoward ELV at 8:00 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineELV 91.2%game average, +33.7 points from the pregame 57.5%
Mainz vs SV Elversberg live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | M05 | ELV |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | M0545.9% | ELV54.1% |
| Shots | M0510 | ELV13 |
| Shots on target | M052 | ELV6 |
| Corners | M0511 | ELV5 |
| Passes completed | M05240/334 | ELV326/412 |
| Saves | M052 | ELV1 |
| Fouls | M0522 | ELV8 |
| Offsides | M052 | ELV0 |
| Yellow cards | M053 | ELV0 |
| Red cards | M051 | ELV0 |
Mainz vs SV Elversberg team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | M05 | ELV |
|---|---|---|
| Score | M051 | ELV4 |
| Average win probability | M059% | ELV91% |
| Longest scoring run | M05+1 | ELV+3 |
| Time leading | M050:00 | ELV82:00 |
Mainz vs SV Elversberg odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET
Mainz28%
Win chanceSV Elversberg43%
SpreadELV −0.5closing model spread
Total3.5
Moneyline+254away / +251draw / +131homeaway / draw / home
Line movementELV win chance, 5 stored lines
−7 pts for ELV between Oct 29 and Oct 30
56%38%
Oct 29Oct 30
Every stored line
| Stored | ELV win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 43% | −7 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 50% | — |
- Ratings
- ELV 1409 · M05 1415
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET · 2026-10-30 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Mainz 1, SV Elversberg 4. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Bundesliga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 30, 10:34 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · 1 pick
Be the first on the bandwagon
MainzSV Elversberg
Neutrals only–
MainzSV Elversberg
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, SV Elversberg–
1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Mainz vs SV Elversberg prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the SV Elversberg a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 43% chance to win and a 28% chance of a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: SV Elversberg 1425 (8th of 18), Mainz 1399 (13th). The SV Elversberg are 4-3-1; the Mainz are 3-4-1. The SV Elversberg have won 2 of their last 5; the Mainz 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Mainz
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at SV Elversberg | L 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Werder Bremen | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Schalke 04 | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Bayer Leverkusen | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup |
SV Elversberg
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Mainz | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at RB Leipzig | L 0–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs FC Augsburg | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at 1. FC Union Berlin | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Schalke 04 | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Mainz: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
SV Elversberg: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Mainz3-4-1 9th
- Mainz rating1399 13th of 18, 8 games
- SV Elversberg4-3-1 7th
- SV Elversberg rating1425 8th of 18, 8 games
Mainz 3-4-1
Bundesliga · 9th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $MAINZ
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $MAINZ
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $MAINZ
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $MAINZ: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Mainz bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
SV Elversberg 4-3-1
Bundesliga · 7th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $ELVERSBERG
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $ELVERSBERG
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $ELVERSBERG
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $ELVERSBERG: the share of the crowd ▲ on the SV Elversberg bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Mainz at SV Elversberg
Sign in to post a take on $MAINZELVERSBERG261030: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Mainz 1, SV Elversberg 4. Bandwagon's model had the SV Elversberg at 43% and projected SV Elversberg 2.0, Mainz 1.5; spread SV Elversberg −0.5, total 3.5.