Bundesliga, and the model has Bayern Munich at 62 percent to win from the opening minutes, with the score still 0-0. Crowd picks have not come in yet, so there is no crowd figure to set beside it.
Bundesliga · · Allianz Arena · every Bundesliga line
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreBorussia Dortmund 2, Bayern Munich 2 a draw
- Pregame Projected winnerBayern Munich 62%
- Pregame Projected scoreBayern Munich 2.3, Borussia Dortmund 1.3
- Model spreadBayern Munich −1 total 3.5
- Margin0 projected 1
- Total4 projected 3.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Borussia Dortmund or Bayern Munich: the bandwagon
Bandwagon
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Axle 16–62Market –
FinalPregame: MUN 73%Baseline: MUN 80.4% (+7.6)Big swing: 48.6 ptsClutch window: 45:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| DOR | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| MUN | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
DOR 44.4%MUN 55.6%
Borussia Dortmund at Bayern Munich win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to DOR−45.5 points for MUN over the last 10:00
Big swing48.6 ptstoward DOR at 90:00 of game time
Clutch window45:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineMUN 80.4%game average, +7.6 points from the pregame 72.8%
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | DOR | MUN |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | DOR44.4% | MUN55.6% |
| Shots | DOR12 | MUN23 |
| Shots on target | DOR6 | MUN5 |
| Corners | DOR2 | MUN5 |
| Passes completed | DOR392/479 | MUN516/602 |
| Saves | DOR3 | MUN4 |
| Fouls | DOR6 | MUN11 |
| Offsides | DOR3 | MUN3 |
| Yellow cards | DOR1 | MUN2 |
| Red cards | DOR0 | MUN0 |
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | DOR | MUN |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DOR2 | MUN2 |
| Average win probability | DOR20% | MUN80% |
| Longest scoring run | DOR+1 | MUN+1 |
| Time leading | DOR2:00 | MUN45:00 |
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 12:27 PM ET
Borussia Dortmund16%
Win chanceBayern Munich62%
SpreadMUN −1closing model spread
Total3.5
Moneyline+529away / +343draw / −160homeaway / draw / home
Line movementMUN win chance, 8 stored lines
−1 pts for MUN between Oct 29 and Oct 31
69%56%
Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | MUN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 12:27 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:27 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 5:25 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 62% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 63% | — |
- Ratings
- MUN 1707 · DOR 1592
- Home spread
- −1
- Stored
- Oct 31, 12:27 PM ET · 2026-10-31 16:27 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Borussia Dortmund 2, Bayern Munich 2. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Bundesliga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 11:30 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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Borussia DortmundBayern Munich
Neutrals only–
Borussia DortmundBayern Munich
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Bayern Munich–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bayern Munich a 1-point favorite at home, with a 62% chance to win and a 23% chance of a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: Bayern Munich 1703 (1st of 18), Borussia Dortmund 1597 (2nd). The Bayern Munich are 5-0-3; the Borussia Dortmund are 5-0-3. The Bayern Munich have won 3 of their last 5; the Borussia Dortmund 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Bayern Munich won 3, the Borussia Dortmund 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Borussia Dortmund
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Bayern Munich | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Eintracht Frankfurt | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at 1. FC Union Berlin | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Werder Bremen | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at VfB Stuttgart | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup |
Bayern Munich
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Atlético Madrid | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Borussia Dortmund | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at SC Freiburg | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Arsenal | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs RB Leipzig | W 6–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich at Borussia Dortmund | 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Borussia Dortmund at Bayern Munich | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Borussia Dortmund at Bayern Munich | 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Bayern Munich at Borussia Dortmund | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Borussia Dortmund at Bayern Munich | 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Bayern Munich at Borussia Dortmund | 4–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Borussia Dortmund: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Bayern Munich: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Borussia Dortmund5-0-3 2nd
- Borussia Dortmund rating1597 2nd of 18, 8 games
- Bayern Munich5-0-3 1st
- Bayern Munich rating1703 1st of 18, 8 games
Borussia Dortmund 5-0-3
Bundesliga · 2nd
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $DORTMUND
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $DORTMUND
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $DORTMUND
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $DORTMUND: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Borussia Dortmund bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Bayern Munich 5-0-3
Bundesliga · 1st
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $BAYERN
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $BAYERN
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $BAYERN
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $BAYERN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Bayern Munich bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Borussia Dortmund at Bayern Munich
Sign in to post a take on $DORTMUNDBAYERN261031: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Borussia Dortmund 2, Bayern Munich 2. Bandwagon's model had the Bayern Munich at 62% and projected Bayern Munich 2.3, Borussia Dortmund 1.3; spread Bayern Munich −1, total 3.5.