SV Elversberg vs Borussia Dortmund prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerBorussia Dortmund 69%
- Projected scoreBorussia Dortmund 2.3, SV Elversberg 0.7
- Model spreadBorussia Dortmund −1.5 total 3
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
SV Elversberg or Borussia Dortmund: the bandwagon
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Axle 12–69Market 10–75
SV Elversberg at Borussia Dortmund win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
SV Elversberg vs Borussia Dortmund live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
SV Elversberg vs Borussia Dortmund team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | ELV | DOR |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ELV– | DOR– |
| Average win probability | ELV– | DOR– |
| Longest scoring run | ELV– | DOR– |
| Time leading | ELV– | DOR– |
SV Elversberg vs Borussia Dortmund model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | DOR win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:33 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:24 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:32 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:27 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 5:25 PM ET | 69% | −2 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 71% | — |
- Ratings
- DOR 1597 · ELV 1425
- Home spread
- −1.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Bundesliga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
SV Elversberg vs Borussia Dortmund odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Bundesliga marketKalshi prices Borussia Dortmund at 75%, Polymarket at 76% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 69%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | ELV | Draw | DOR | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 11% | 14% | 75% | ||
| Polymarket | 10% | 14% | 76% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 12% | 19% | 69% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
SV Elversberg vs Borussia Dortmund prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Borussia Dortmund a 1.5-point favorite at home, with a 69% chance to win and a 19% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Borussia Dortmund 1597 (2nd of 18), SV Elversberg 1425 (8th). The Borussia Dortmund are 5-0-3; the SV Elversberg are 4-3-1. The Borussia Dortmund have won 2 of their last 5; the SV Elversberg 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
SV Elversberg
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Mainz | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at RB Leipzig | L 0–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs FC Augsburg | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at 1. FC Union Berlin | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Schalke 04 | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup |
Borussia Dortmund
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Bayern Munich | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Eintracht Frankfurt | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at 1. FC Union Berlin | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Werder Bremen | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at VfB Stuttgart | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
SV Elversberg: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Borussia Dortmund: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- SV Elversberg4-3-1 7th
- SV Elversberg rating1425 8th of 18, 8 games
- Borussia Dortmund5-0-3 2nd
- Borussia Dortmund rating1597 2nd of 18, 8 games
SV Elversberg 4-3-1
Bundesliga · 7th
No stances yet today on $ELVERSBERG: the share of the crowd ▲ on the SV Elversberg bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Borussia Dortmund 5-0-3
Bundesliga · 2nd
No stances yet today on $DORTMUND: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Borussia Dortmund bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on SV Elversberg at Borussia Dortmund
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Model: Borussia Dortmund 69% to win, draw 19%. Projected score Borussia Dortmund 2.3, SV Elversberg 0.7; spread Borussia Dortmund −1.5, total 3. Kalshi 75%, Polymarket 76% for Borussia Dortmund. SV Elversberg at Borussia Dortmund, Sat, Nov 7, 9:30 AM ET.