Schalke 04 vs TSG Hoffenheim prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerTSG Hoffenheim 53%
- Projected scoreTSG Hoffenheim 1.9, Schalke 04 1.1
- Model spreadTSG Hoffenheim −1 total 3
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Schalke 04 or TSG Hoffenheim: the bandwagon
Axle 21–53Market 19–60
Schalke 04 at TSG Hoffenheim win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Schalke 04 vs TSG Hoffenheim live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Schalke 04 vs TSG Hoffenheim team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | S04 | TSG |
|---|---|---|
| Score | S04– | TSG– |
| Average win probability | S04– | TSG– |
| Longest scoring run | S04– | TSG– |
| Time leading | S04– | TSG– |
Schalke 04 vs TSG Hoffenheim model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | TSG win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:33 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:24 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:32 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:27 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 5:25 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 53% | −3 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 56% | — |
- Ratings
- TSG 1442 · S04 1385
- Home spread
- −1
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Bundesliga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Schalke 04 vs TSG Hoffenheim odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Bundesliga marketKalshi prices TSG Hoffenheim at 60%, Polymarket at 61% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 53%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | S04 | Draw | TSG | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 19% | 21% | 60% | ||
| Polymarket | 19% | 21% | 61% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 21% | 26% | 53% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Schalke 04 vs TSG Hoffenheim prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the TSG Hoffenheim a 1-point favorite at home, with a 53% chance to win and a 26% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: TSG Hoffenheim 1442 (7th of 18), Schalke 04 1385 (15th). The TSG Hoffenheim are 3-5; the Schalke 04 are 1-4-3. The TSG Hoffenheim have won 2 of their last 5; the Schalke 04 0 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the TSG Hoffenheim won 2, the Schalke 04 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Schalke 04
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RB Leipzig | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at FC Cologne | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Mainz | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at SC Freiburg | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs SV Elversberg | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup |
TSG Hoffenheim
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Werder Bremen | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Bayer Leverkusen | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Hamburg SV | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at SC Paderborn 07 | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 at TSG Hoffenheim | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| TSG Hoffenheim at Schalke 04 | 3–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Schalke 04: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
TSG Hoffenheim: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Schalke 041-4-3 17th
- Schalke 04 rating1385 15th of 18, 8 games
- TSG Hoffenheim3-5 12th
- TSG Hoffenheim rating1442 7th of 18, 8 games
Schalke 04 1-4-3
Bundesliga · 17th
No stances yet today on $SCHALKE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Schalke 04 bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
TSG Hoffenheim 3-5
Bundesliga · 12th
No stances yet today on $HOFFENHEIM: the share of the crowd ▲ on the TSG Hoffenheim bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Schalke 04 at TSG Hoffenheim
Sign in to post a take on $SCHALKEHOFFENHEIM261108: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
Model: TSG Hoffenheim 53% to win, draw 26%. Projected score TSG Hoffenheim 1.9, Schalke 04 1.1; spread TSG Hoffenheim −1, total 3. Kalshi 60%, Polymarket 61% for TSG Hoffenheim. Schalke 04 at TSG Hoffenheim, Sun, Nov 8, 1:30 PM ET.