The Bundesliga match is level 0-0 in the first minute. Our model has Werder Bremen at 35%, so the numbers lean toward Hoffenheim right now, and the crowd sample is still empty.
Bundesliga · · Weserstadion · every Bundesliga line
TSG Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreTSG Hoffenheim 0, Werder Bremen 2
- Pregame Projected winnereven
- Pregame Projected scoreWerder Bremen 1.8, TSG Hoffenheim 1.8
- Model spreadeven total 3.5
- Margin2 projected 0
- Total2 projected 3.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
TSG Hoffenheim or Werder Bremen: the bandwagon
Bandwagon
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Axle 36–35Market –
FinalPregame: SVW 49%Baseline: SVW 65.2% (+15.8)Big swing: 34.8 ptsClutch window: 39:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSG | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SVW | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
TSG 58.6%SVW 41.4%
TSG Hoffenheim at Werder Bremen win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to SVW+4.3 points for SVW over the last 10:00
Big swing34.8 ptstoward SVW at 57:00 of game time
Clutch window39:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineSVW 65.2%game average, +15.8 points from the pregame 49.4%
TSG Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | TSG | SVW |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | TSG58.6% | SVW41.4% |
| Shots | TSG16 | SVW18 |
| Shots on target | TSG2 | SVW4 |
| Corners | TSG4 | SVW8 |
| Passes completed | TSG432/526 | SVW268/371 |
| Saves | TSG2 | SVW1 |
| Fouls | TSG11 | SVW11 |
| Offsides | TSG1 | SVW0 |
| Yellow cards | TSG0 | SVW3 |
| Red cards | TSG0 | SVW0 |
TSG Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | TSG | SVW |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TSG0 | SVW2 |
| Average win probability | TSG35% | SVW65% |
| Longest scoring run | TSG+0 | SVW+2 |
| Time leading | TSG0:00 | SVW33:00 |
TSG Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET
TSG Hoffenheim36%
Win chanceWerder Bremen35%
SpreadPKclosing model spread
Total3.5
Moneyline+178away / +243draw / +187homeaway / draw / home
Line movementSVW win chance, 7 stored lines
No move
40%29%
Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | SVW win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 5:25 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 35% | — |
- Ratings
- SVW 1393 · TSG 1458
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET · 2026-10-31 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: TSG Hoffenheim 0, Werder Bremen 2. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Bundesliga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 11:30 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
TSG HoffenheimWerder Bremen
Neutrals only–
TSG HoffenheimWerder Bremen
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Werder Bremen–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
TSG Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen prediction
Bandwagon's model has this one even: 35% for the Werder Bremen, 29% for a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: Werder Bremen 1410 (11th of 18), TSG Hoffenheim 1442 (7th). The Werder Bremen are 4-1-3; the TSG Hoffenheim are 3-5. The Werder Bremen have won 3 of their last 5; the TSG Hoffenheim 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Werder Bremen won 1, the TSG Hoffenheim 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
TSG Hoffenheim
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Werder Bremen | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Bayer Leverkusen | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Hamburg SV | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at SC Paderborn 07 | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup |
Werder Bremen
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs TSG Hoffenheim | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Mainz | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs SC Paderborn 07 | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Borussia Dortmund | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs FC Augsburg | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen at TSG Hoffenheim | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| TSG Hoffenheim at Werder Bremen | 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| TSG Hoffenheim at Werder Bremen | 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Werder Bremen at TSG Hoffenheim | 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Werder Bremen at TSG Hoffenheim | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| TSG Hoffenheim at Werder Bremen | 3–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
TSG Hoffenheim: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Werder Bremen: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- TSG Hoffenheim3-5 12th
- TSG Hoffenheim rating1442 7th of 18, 8 games
- Werder Bremen4-1-3 5th
- Werder Bremen rating1410 11th of 18, 8 games
TSG Hoffenheim 3-5
Bundesliga · 12th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $HOFFENHEIM
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $HOFFENHEIM
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $HOFFENHEIM
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $HOFFENHEIM: the share of the crowd ▲ on the TSG Hoffenheim bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Werder Bremen 4-1-3
Bundesliga · 5th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $BREMEN
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $BREMEN
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $BREMEN
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $BREMEN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Werder Bremen bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on TSG Hoffenheim at Werder Bremen
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