Frosinone vs Cagliari prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerFrosinone 42%
- Projected scoreFrosinone 1.6, Cagliari 1.4
- Model spreadeven total 3
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Frosinone or Cagliari: the bandwagon
Axle 42–30Market 39–35
Frosinone at Cagliari win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Frosinone vs Cagliari live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Frosinone vs Cagliari team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | FRO | CAG |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FRO– | CAG– |
| Average win probability | FRO– | CAG– |
| Longest scoring run | FRO– | CAG– |
| Time leading | FRO– | CAG– |
Frosinone vs Cagliari model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | CAG win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:43 PM ET | 30% | +1 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:59 AM ET | 29% | −2 |
| Nov 1, 8:29 AM ET | 31% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:46 PM ET | 32% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 2:56 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:01 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 31% | +3 |
| Oct 29, 5:53 PM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 3:34 PM ET | 28% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 30% | — |
- Ratings
- CAG 1383 · FRO 1465
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Serie A a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Frosinone vs Cagliari odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Serie A marketKalshi prices Frosinone at 39%, Polymarket at 39%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 42%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | FRO | Draw | CAG | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 39% | 26% | 35% | ||
| Polymarket | 39% | 25% | 36% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 42% | 29% | 30% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Frosinone vs Cagliari prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Frosinone the favorite, with a 42% chance to win and a 29% chance of a draw; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 3. Ratings: Cagliari 1383 (15th of 20), Frosinone 1465 (9th). The Cagliari are 4-5-1; the Frosinone are 6-2-2. The Cagliari have won 0 of their last 5; the Frosinone 3 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Cagliari won 1, the Frosinone 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Frosinone
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Torino | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Lecce | W 5–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Atalanta | T 4–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sassuolo | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Napoli | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup |
Cagliari
Head-to-head
Injuries
Frosinone: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Cagliari: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Frosinone6-2-2 6th
- Frosinone rating1465 9th of 20, 10 games
- Cagliari4-5-1 12th
- Cagliari rating1383 15th of 20, 10 games
Frosinone 6-2-2
Serie A · 6th
No stances yet today on $FROSINONE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Frosinone bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Cagliari 4-5-1
Serie A · 12th
No stances yet today on $CAGLIARI: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Cagliari bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Frosinone at Cagliari
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Model: Frosinone 42% to win, draw 29%. Projected score Frosinone 1.6, Cagliari 1.4; spread even, total 3. Kalshi 39%, Polymarket 39% for Frosinone. Frosinone at Cagliari, Sat, Nov 7, 9:00 AM ET.