Serie A today, and Lazio at home against Cagliari is scoreless at 7 minutes. The model gives Lazio a 67 percent chance right now, and no crowd picks are in yet, so the only number to go on is the model's.
Serie A · · Stadio Olimpico · every Serie A line
Cagliari vs Lazio: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreCagliari 1, Lazio 2 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerLazio 67%
- Pregame Projected scoreLazio 2.0, Cagliari 1.0
- Model spreadLazio −1 total 3
- Margin1 projected 1
- Total3 projected 3
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Cagliari or Lazio: the bandwagon
Axle 13–67Market –
FinalPregame: LAZ 77%Baseline: LAZ 66.9% (−10.3)Big swing: 40.2 ptsClutch window: 45:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAG | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| LAZ | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
CAG 26.2%LAZ 73.8%
Cagliari at Lazio win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to LAZ+39.9 points for LAZ over the last 10:00
Big swing40.2 ptstoward LAZ at 84:00 of game time
Clutch window45:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineLAZ 66.9%game average, −10.3 points from the pregame 77.2%
Cagliari vs Lazio live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | CAG | LAZ |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | CAG26.2% | LAZ73.8% |
| Shots | CAG9 | LAZ11 |
| Shots on target | CAG3 | LAZ4 |
| Corners | CAG2 | LAZ2 |
| Passes completed | CAG194/262 | LAZ660/747 |
| Saves | CAG2 | LAZ2 |
| Fouls | CAG18 | LAZ7 |
| Offsides | CAG2 | LAZ3 |
| Yellow cards | CAG2 | LAZ1 |
| Red cards | CAG1 | LAZ0 |
Cagliari vs Lazio team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | CAG | LAZ |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAG1 | LAZ2 |
| Average win probability | CAG33% | LAZ67% |
| Longest scoring run | CAG+1 | LAZ+2 |
| Time leading | CAG16:00 | LAZ6:00 |
Cagliari vs Lazio odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 8:29 AM ET
Cagliari13%
Win chanceLazio67%
SpreadLAZ −1closing model spread
Total3
Moneyline+692away / +392draw / −204homeaway / draw / home
Line movementLAZ win chance, 13 stored lines
No move
73%61%
Oct 29Oct 30Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | LAZ win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 8:29 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 8:29 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:46 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:56 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:01 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 67% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 5:53 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 3:34 PM ET | 68% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 67% | — |
- Ratings
- LAZ 1552 · CAG 1387
- Home spread
- −1
- Stored
- Nov 1, 8:29 AM ET · 2026-11-01 13:29 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Cagliari 1, Lazio 2. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Serie A a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 1, 10:02 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
CagliariLazio
Neutrals only–
CagliariLazio
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Lazio–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Cagliari vs Lazio prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lazio a 1-point favorite at home, with a 67% chance to win and a 20% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Lazio 1556 (4th of 20), Cagliari 1383 (15th). The Lazio are 9-0-1; the Cagliari are 4-5-1. The Lazio have won 5 of their last 5; the Cagliari 0 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Lazio won 5, the Cagliari 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Cagliari
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Lazio | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at AS Roma | L 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Bologna | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Monza | L 0–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Juventus | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Lazio
Head-to-head
Injuries
Cagliari: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Lazio: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Cagliari4-5-1 12th
- Cagliari rating1383 15th of 20, 10 games
- Lazio9-0-1 1st
- Lazio rating1556 4th of 20, 10 games
Cagliari 4-5-1
Serie A · 12th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $CAGLIARI
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $CAGLIARI
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $CAGLIARI
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $CAGLIARI: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Cagliari bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Lazio 9-0-1
Serie A · 1st
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $LAZIO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $LAZIO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $LAZIO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $LAZIO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Lazio bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Cagliari at Lazio
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