Serie A odds this week
Win chance, spread and total for every game. Today's Serie A predictions · Standings · every league
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
Serie A odds Friday, November 6
1 game| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / draw / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese at Venezia | Udinese 37%draw 29% | PK | 3 | +172 / +240 / +196 | no move | Matchup |
Serie A odds Saturday, November 7
4 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / draw / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone at Cagliari | Frosinone 42%draw 29% | PK | 3 | +141 / +245 / +239 | no move | Matchup | |
| Lecce at Torino | Torino 51%draw 27% | Torino −0.5 | 3 | +347 / +273 / −103 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bologna at Parma | Bologna 44%draw 28% | PK | 2.5 | +126 / +251 / +267 | no move | Matchup | |
| Sassuolo at AS Roma | AS Roma 78%draw 14% | AS Roma −1.5 | 3.5 | +1206 / +607 / −359 | no move | Matchup |
Serie A odds Sunday, November 8
5 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / draw / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio at Napoli | Napoli 37%draw 29% | PK | 3 | +201 / +241 / +167 | no move | Matchup | |
| Atalanta at Monza | Atalanta 51%draw 27% | Atalanta −0.5 | 3.5 | −104 / +274 / +351 | no move | Matchup | |
| AC Milan at Genoa | AC Milan 51%draw 27% | AC Milan −0.5 | 3 | −105 / +275 / +354 | no move | Matchup | |
| Como at Internazionale | Internazionale 54%draw 26% | Internazionale −0.5 | 3 | +394 / +288 / −117 | no move | Matchup | |
| Juventus at Fiorentina | Juventus 47%draw 28% | Juventus −0.5 | 3 | +111 / +260 / +303 | no move | Matchup |
How these lines are made
In Serie A a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal inputs
- Ratings from results used in 10 of 10
an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results - Home advantage used in 10 of 10
the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results - Schedule in the data but not used for 10
rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures - Recent form in the data but not used for 10
average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External inputs
- Injuries unavailable for 10 (No injury list read before this game; More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that window)
players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores - Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 10
distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC - Weather in the data but not used for 10
forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · newest read Nov 4, 10:03 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Serie A team ratings
The Elo-style ratings the lines are made from, after the latest results. The league mean is 1500.
| # | Team | Rating | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internazionale | 1656 | 10 |
| 2 | AS Roma | 1610 | 10 |
| 3 | Como | 1577 | 10 |
| 4 | Lazio | 1556 | 10 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 1547 | 10 |
| 6 | Napoli | 1530 | 10 |
| 7 | Juventus | 1525 | 10 |
| 8 | Bologna | 1483 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 1465 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 1463 | 10 |
| 11 | Fiorentina | 1406 | 10 |
| 12 | Genoa | 1403 | 10 |
Top 12 of 20; every team's rating is on its page.
Serie A model record
Over 950 Serie A games in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, scored before each result was known: the favored side won 52% of the time, Brier score 0.215, mean spread error 1.178 points, mean total error 1.261. Calibration and method.
Bandwagon's model lines for Serie A games this week: win probability, spread, total and moneyline for each game, movement since the last line, and the team ratings behind them. Not a sportsbook.