Juventus vs Fiorentina prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerJuventus 47%
- Projected scoreJuventus 1.6, Fiorentina 1.4
- Model spreadJuventus −0.5 total 3
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Juventus or Fiorentina: the bandwagon
Axle 47–25Market 46–27
Juventus at Fiorentina win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Juventus vs Fiorentina live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Juventus vs Fiorentina team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | JUV | FIO |
|---|---|---|
| Score | JUV– | FIO– |
| Average win probability | JUV– | FIO– |
| Longest scoring run | JUV– | FIO– |
| Time leading | JUV– | FIO– |
Juventus vs Fiorentina model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | FIO win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:43 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:25 PM ET | 25% | +2 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 23% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 10:59 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 8:29 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:46 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:56 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:01 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 24% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 5:53 PM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 3:34 PM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 23% | — |
- Ratings
- FIO 1406 · JUV 1525
- Home spread
- +0.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Serie A a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Juventus vs Fiorentina odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Serie A marketKalshi prices Juventus at 46%, Polymarket at 46%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 47%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | JUV | Draw | FIO | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 46% | 27% | 27% | ||
| Polymarket | 46% | 27% | 27% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 47% | 28% | 25% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Juventus vs Fiorentina prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Juventus a 0.5-point favorite, with a 47% chance to win and a 28% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Fiorentina 1406 (11th of 20), Juventus 1525 (7th). The Fiorentina are 2-6-2; the Juventus are 5-3-2. The Fiorentina have won 1 of their last 5; the Juventus 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Fiorentina won 2, the Juventus 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Juventus
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Napoli | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Genoa | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Lecce | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Lazio | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Cagliari | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Fiorentina
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina at Juventus | 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Juventus at Fiorentina | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Juventus at Fiorentina | 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Fiorentina at Juventus | 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Fiorentina at Juventus | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Juventus at Fiorentina | 1–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Juventus: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Fiorentina: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Juventus5-3-2 7th
- Juventus rating1525 7th of 20, 10 games
- Fiorentina2-6-2 15th
- Fiorentina rating1406 11th of 20, 10 games
Juventus 5-3-2
Serie A · 7th
No stances yet today on $JUVENTUS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Juventus bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Fiorentina 2-6-2
Serie A · 15th
No stances yet today on $FIORENTINA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Fiorentina bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Juventus at Fiorentina
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Model: Juventus 47% to win, draw 28%. Projected score Juventus 1.6, Fiorentina 1.4; spread Juventus −0.5, total 3. Kalshi 46%, Polymarket 46% for Juventus. Juventus at Fiorentina, Sun, Nov 8, 2:45 PM ET.