Soccer: Sassuolo and Fiorentina are level at 0-0, and our model puts Sassuolo at 39 percent. No crowd picks are in yet, so the crowd count is zero and there is nothing to read from it.
Serie A · · Mapei Stadium - Città del Tricolore · every Serie A line
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreFiorentina 4, Sassuolo 2 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerSassuolo 39%
- Pregame Projected scorelevel, 1.8 each draw 29%
- Model spreadeven total 3.5
- Margin2 projected 0
- Total6 projected 3.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Fiorentina or Sassuolo: the bandwagon
Axle 31–39Market –
FinalPregame: SAS 54%Baseline: SAS 46.2% (−7.7)Big swing: 46.8 ptsClutch window: 45:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| FIO | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| SAS | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
FIO 41.8%SAS 58.2%
Fiorentina at Sassuolo win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to FIO−4.5 points for SAS over the last 10:00
Big swing46.8 ptstoward FIO at 80:00 of game time
Clutch window45:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineSAS 46.2%game average, −7.7 points from the pregame 53.9%
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | FIO | SAS |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | FIO41.8% | SAS58.2% |
| Shots | FIO15 | SAS7 |
| Shots on target | FIO6 | SAS2 |
| Corners | FIO3 | SAS5 |
| Passes completed | FIO331/403 | SAS496/563 |
| Saves | FIO0 | SAS2 |
| Fouls | FIO15 | SAS12 |
| Offsides | FIO0 | SAS4 |
| Yellow cards | FIO3 | SAS2 |
| Red cards | FIO0 | SAS0 |
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | FIO | SAS |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FIO4 | SAS2 |
| Average win probability | FIO54% | SAS46% |
| Longest scoring run | FIO+2 | SAS+1 |
| Time leading | FIO26:00 | SAS18:00 |
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET
Fiorentina31%
Win chanceSassuolo39%
SpreadPKclosing model spread
Total3.5
Moneyline+218away / +241draw / +155homeaway / draw / home
Line movementSAS win chance, 15 stored lines
−5 pts for SAS between Oct 29 and Nov 2
50%34%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
Every stored line
| Stored | SAS win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:59 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 8:29 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:46 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:56 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:01 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 39% | −5 |
| Oct 29, 5:53 PM ET | 44% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 3:34 PM ET | 45% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 44% | — |
- Ratings
- SAS 1373 · FIO 1387
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-02 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Fiorentina 4, Sassuolo 2. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Serie A a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 2, 2:59 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
FiorentinaSassuolo
Neutrals only–
FiorentinaSassuolo
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Sassuolo–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Sassuolo the favorite, with a 39% chance to win and a 29% chance of a draw; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: Sassuolo 1355 (17th of 20), Fiorentina 1406 (11th). The Sassuolo are 2-6-2; the Fiorentina are 2-6-2. The Sassuolo have won 0 of their last 5; the Fiorentina 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Sassuolo won 2, the Fiorentina 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Fiorentina
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Sassuolo | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atalanta | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Internazionale | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Como | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Genoa | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Sassuolo
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo at Fiorentina | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Fiorentina at Sassuolo | 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Sassuolo at Fiorentina | 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| Fiorentina at Sassuolo | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Fiorentina at Sassuolo | 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Sassuolo at Fiorentina | 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Fiorentina: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Sassuolo: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Fiorentina2-6-2 16th
- Fiorentina rating1406 11th of 20, 10 games
- Sassuolo2-6-2 17th
- Sassuolo rating1355 17th of 20, 10 games
Fiorentina 2-6-2
Serie A · 16th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $FIORENTINA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $FIORENTINA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $FIORENTINA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Fiorentina bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Sassuolo 2-6-2
Serie A · 17th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $SASSUOLO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $SASSUOLO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $SASSUOLO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $SASSUOLO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Sassuolo bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Fiorentina at Sassuolo
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