Lazio vs Napoli prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerNapoli 37%
- Projected scoreNapoli 1.6, Lazio 1.4
- Model spreadeven total 3
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Lazio or Napoli: the bandwagon
Axle 33–37Market 31–43
Lazio at Napoli win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Lazio vs Napoli live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Lazio vs Napoli team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | LAZ | NAP |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAZ– | NAP– |
| Average win probability | LAZ– | NAP– |
| Longest scoring run | LAZ– | NAP– |
| Time leading | LAZ– | NAP– |
Lazio vs Napoli model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | NAP win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:43 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 37% | −3 |
| Nov 1, 10:59 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 8:29 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:46 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:56 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:01 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 40% | +2 |
| Oct 29, 5:53 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 3:34 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 38% | — |
- Ratings
- NAP 1530 · LAZ 1556
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Serie A a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Lazio vs Napoli odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Serie A marketKalshi prices Napoli at 43%, Polymarket at 43%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 37%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | LAZ | Draw | NAP | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 31% | 27% | 43% | ||
| Polymarket | 30% | 26% | 43% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 33% | 29% | 37% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Lazio vs Napoli prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Napoli the favorite, with a 37% chance to win and a 29% chance of a draw; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 3. Ratings: Napoli 1530 (6th of 20), Lazio 1556 (4th). The Napoli are 4-4-2; the Lazio are 9-0-1. The Napoli have won 1 of their last 5; the Lazio 5 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Napoli won 1, the Lazio 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Lazio
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Cagliari | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sassuolo | W 6–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Parma | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Juventus | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Monza | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup |
Napoli
Head-to-head
Injuries
Lazio: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Napoli: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Lazio9-0-1 1st
- Lazio rating1556 4th of 20, 10 games
- Napoli4-4-2 8th
- Napoli rating1530 6th of 20, 10 games
Lazio 9-0-1
Serie A · 1st
No stances yet today on $LAZIO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Lazio bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Napoli 4-4-2
Serie A · 8th
No stances yet today on $NAPOLI: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Napoli bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Lazio at Napoli
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Model: Napoli 37% to win, draw 29%. Projected score Napoli 1.6, Lazio 1.4; spread even, total 3. Kalshi 43%, Polymarket 43% for Napoli. Lazio at Napoli, Sun, Nov 8, 6:30 AM ET.