Udinese vs Venezia prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerUdinese 37%
- Projected scorelevel, 1.5 each draw 29%
- Model spreadeven total 3
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Udinese or Venezia: the bandwagon
Axle 37–34Market 30–43
Udinese at Venezia win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Udinese vs Venezia live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Udinese vs Venezia team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | UDI | VEN |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UDI– | VEN– |
| Average win probability | UDI– | VEN– |
| Longest scoring run | UDI– | VEN– |
| Time leading | UDI– | VEN– |
Udinese vs Venezia model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | VEN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:43 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:59 AM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 8:29 AM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:46 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:56 PM ET | 34% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 12:01 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 33% | −3 |
| Oct 29, 5:53 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 3:34 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 36% | — |
- Ratings
- VEN 1318 · UDI 1369
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Serie A a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Udinese vs Venezia odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Serie A marketKalshi prices Udinese at 30%, Polymarket at 30%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 37%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | UDI | Draw | VEN | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 30% | 27% | 43% | ||
| Polymarket | 30% | 27% | 43% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 37% | 29% | 34% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Udinese vs Venezia prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Udinese the favorite, with a 37% chance to win and a 29% chance of a draw; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 3. Ratings: Venezia 1318 (20th of 20), Udinese 1369 (16th). The Venezia are 1-9; the Udinese are 1-7-2. The Venezia have won 1 of their last 5; the Udinese 0 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Venezia won 1, the Udinese 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Udinese
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs AS Roma | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Parma | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs AC Milan | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Lecce | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Torino | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Venezia
Head-to-head
Injuries
Udinese: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Venezia: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Udinese1-7-2 19th
- Udinese rating1369 16th of 20, 10 games
- Venezia1-9 20th
- Venezia rating1318 20th of 20, 10 games
Udinese 1-7-2
Serie A · 19th
No stances yet today on $UDINESE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Udinese bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Venezia 1-9
Serie A · 20th
No stances yet today on $VENEZIA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Venezia bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Udinese at Venezia
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Model: Udinese 37% to win, draw 29%. Projected score level, 1.5 each; spread even, total 3. Kalshi 30%, Polymarket 30% for Udinese. Udinese at Venezia, Fri, Nov 6, 2:45 PM ET.