Sassuolo vs AS Roma prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerAS Roma 78%
- Projected scoreAS Roma 2.5, Sassuolo 0.9
- Model spreadAS Roma −1.5 total 3.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Sassuolo or AS Roma: the bandwagon
Axle 8–78Market 10–75
Sassuolo at AS Roma win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Sassuolo vs AS Roma live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Sassuolo vs AS Roma team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | SAS | ROMA |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SAS– | ROMA– |
| Average win probability | SAS– | ROMA– |
| Longest scoring run | SAS– | ROMA– |
| Time leading | SAS– | ROMA– |
Sassuolo vs AS Roma model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | ROMA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:43 PM ET | 78% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 2:25 PM ET | 79% | +3 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:59 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 8:29 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:46 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:56 PM ET | 76% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 12:01 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 5:53 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 3:34 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 75% | — |
- Ratings
- ROMA 1610 · SAS 1355
- Home spread
- −1.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Serie A a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Sassuolo vs AS Roma odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Serie A marketKalshi prices AS Roma at 75%, Polymarket at 75%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 78%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | SAS | Draw | ROMA | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 10% | 15% | 75% | ||
| Polymarket | 10% | 15% | 75% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 8% | 14% | 78% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Sassuolo vs AS Roma prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the AS Roma a 1.5-point favorite at home, with a 78% chance to win and a 14% chance of a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: AS Roma 1610 (2nd of 20), Sassuolo 1355 (17th). The AS Roma are 7-0-3; the Sassuolo are 2-6-2. The AS Roma have won 3 of their last 5; the Sassuolo 0 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the AS Roma won 4, the Sassuolo 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Sassuolo
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Fiorentina | L 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Lazio | L 2–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Como | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Frosinone | L 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs AC Milan | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
AS Roma
Head-to-head
Injuries
Sassuolo: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
AS Roma: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Sassuolo2-6-2 16th
- Sassuolo rating1355 17th of 20, 10 games
- AS Roma7-0-3 3rd
- AS Roma rating1610 2nd of 20, 10 games
Sassuolo 2-6-2
Serie A · 16th
No stances yet today on $SASSUOLO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Sassuolo bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
AS Roma 7-0-3
Serie A · 3rd
No stances yet today on $ASROMA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the AS Roma bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Sassuolo at AS Roma
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Model: AS Roma 78% to win, draw 14%. Projected score AS Roma 2.5, Sassuolo 0.9; spread AS Roma −1.5, total 3.5. Kalshi 75%, Polymarket 75% for AS Roma. Sassuolo at AS Roma, Sat, Nov 7, 2:45 PM ET.