National Basketball Association odds Thursday, November 5
Win chance, spread and total for every game. Today's National Basketball Association predictions · Standings · every league
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
National Basketball Association odds Thursday, November 5
2 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic at Suns | Magic 55% | PK | 228 | −122 / +122 | no move | Matchup | |
| Heat at Warriors | Warriors 69% | Warriors −7 | 233.5 | +221 / −221 | no move | Matchup |
How these lines are made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal inputs
- Ratings from results used in 2 of 2
an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results - Home advantage used in 2 of 2
the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results - Schedule used in 2 of 2
rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures - Recent form used in 2 of 2
average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External inputs
- Injuries in the data but not used for 2
players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · newest read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC - Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 2
distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC - Weather unavailable for 2 (Indoor sport)
forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
National Basketball Association team ratings
The Elo-style ratings the lines are made from, after the latest results. The league mean is 1500.
| # | Team | Rating | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Antonio Spurs | 1721 | 7 |
| 2 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1710 | 7 |
| 3 | New York Knicks | 1706 | 7 |
| 4 | Detroit Pistons | 1696 | 7 |
| 5 | Houston Rockets | 1652 | 8 |
| 6 | Boston Celtics | 1634 | 7 |
| 7 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1614 | 8 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1599 | 8 |
| 9 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1588 | 8 |
| 10 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1580 | 7 |
| 11 | Denver Nuggets | 1575 | 6 |
| 12 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1562 | 6 |
Top 12 of 30; every team's rating is on its page.
National Basketball Association model record
Over 4069 National Basketball Association games in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, scored before each result was known: the favored side won 67% of the time, Brier score 0.2101, mean spread error 11.263 points, mean total error 15.214. Calibration and method.
Bandwagon's model lines for National Basketball Association games Thursday, November 5: win probability, spread, total and moneyline for each game, movement since the last line, and the team ratings behind them. Not a sportsbook.