National Basketball Association odds Wednesday, November 4
Win chance, spread and total for every game. Today's National Basketball Association predictions · Standings · every league
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
National Basketball Association odds Wednesday, November 4
14 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76ers at Pistons | Pistons 69% | Pistons −7 | 220 | +218 / −218 | no move | Matchup | |
| Hawks at Wizards | Hawks 65% | Hawks −3 | 225 | −185 / +185 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bucks at Celtics | Celtics 86% | Celtics −14 | 229 | +594 / −594 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bulls at Knicks | Knicks 88% | Knicks −16 | 227 | +761 / −761 | no move | Matchup | |
| Hornets at Nets | Hornets 68% | Hornets −3.5 | 219.5 | −209 / +209 | no move | Matchup | |
| Cavaliers at Thunder | Thunder 68% | Thunder −6.5 | 227 | +209 / −209 | no move | Matchup | |
| Jazz at Pelicans | Pelicans 75% | Pelicans −9.5 | 231.5 | +304 / −304 | no move | Matchup | |
| Pacers at Grizzlies | Grizzlies 72% | Grizzlies −8 | 229.5 | +258 / −258 | no move | Matchup | |
| Timberwolves at Rockets | Rockets 61% | Rockets −4.5 | 227 | +153 / −153 | no move | Matchup | |
| Raptors at Nuggets | Nuggets 56% | Nuggets −3.5 | 229 | +129 / −129 | no move | Matchup | |
| Trail Blazers at Suns | Trail Blazers 59% | Trail Blazers −1 | 230 | −146 / +146 | no move | Matchup | |
| Mavericks at Spurs | Spurs 84% | Spurs −13 | 226.5 | +526 / −526 | no move | Matchup | |
| Lakers at Kings | Lakers 76% | Lakers −6.5 | 233 | −319 / +319 | no move | Matchup | |
| Heat at Clippers | Clippers 52% | Clippers −2 | 231 | +109 / −109 | no move | Matchup |
How these lines are made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal inputs
- Ratings from results used in 14 of 14
an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results - Home advantage used in 14 of 14
the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results - Schedule used in 14 of 14
rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures - Recent form used in 14 of 14
average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External inputs
- Injuries in the data but not used for 14
players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · newest read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC - Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 14
distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC - Weather unavailable for 14 (Indoor sport)
forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
National Basketball Association team ratings
The Elo-style ratings the lines are made from, after the latest results. The league mean is 1500.
| # | Team | Rating | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Antonio Spurs | 1721 | 7 |
| 2 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1710 | 7 |
| 3 | New York Knicks | 1706 | 7 |
| 4 | Detroit Pistons | 1696 | 7 |
| 5 | Houston Rockets | 1652 | 8 |
| 6 | Boston Celtics | 1634 | 7 |
| 7 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1614 | 8 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1599 | 8 |
| 9 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1588 | 8 |
| 10 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1580 | 7 |
| 11 | Denver Nuggets | 1575 | 6 |
| 12 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1562 | 6 |
Top 12 of 30; every team's rating is on its page.
National Basketball Association model record
Over 4069 National Basketball Association games in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, scored before each result was known: the favored side won 67% of the time, Brier score 0.2101, mean spread error 11.263 points, mean total error 15.214. Calibration and method.
Bandwagon's model lines for National Basketball Association games Wednesday, November 4: win probability, spread, total and moneyline for each game, movement since the last line, and the team ratings behind them. Not a sportsbook.