Minnesota Wild vs Calgary Flames prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Wild at Flames: Bandwagon's model makes the Wild a 61% favorite (Wild −0.5).
Minnesota Wild vs Calgary Flames model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Wild a 61% chance to win.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NHL marketEach bar is the chance that the Wild win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 61%.
The largest gap is 6 points: Polymarket has the Wild at 67%, Axle at 61%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before puck drop
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before puck drop. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has the Wild
All NHL ratings| MIN | CGY | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1556 4th of 32 | 1456 29th of 32 |
| Record | 13-3-4 | 8-9-1 |
| Last 5 games | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | W1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 2 | 4 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | CGY win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:48 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 1:02 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:12 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 9:58 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 9:53 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 8:43 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:47 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:47 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:42 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:52 PM ET | 39% | +1 |
| Nov 7, 10:32 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:05 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:55 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:45 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:40 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:49 PM ET | 38% | −1 |
| Nov 6, 10:44 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 39% | — |
Wild vs Flames odds on Polymarket
Every NHL marketPolymarket prices the Wild at 67%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 61%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | MIN | CGY | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 67% | 33% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 61% | 39% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Minnesota Wild vs Calgary Flames prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Wild a 0.5-point favorite, with a 61% chance to win. The model total is 5.5. Ratings: Flames 1456 (29th of 32), Wild 1556 (4th). The Flames are 8-9-1 in the Pacific Division; the Wild are 13-3-4 in the Central Division. The Flames have won 2 of their last 5; the Wild 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Flames won 4, the Wild 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Minnesota Wild
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Montreal Canadiens | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tampa Bay Lightning | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Jose Sharks | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Philadelphia Flyers | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington Capitals | W 5–1 | – | – | matchup |
Calgary Flames
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Philadelphia Flyers | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Anaheim Ducks | L 3–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Seattle Kraken | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Jose Sharks | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado Avalanche | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Calgary Flames at Minnesota Wild | 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames | 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Calgary Flames at Minnesota Wild | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames | 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Calgary Flames at Minnesota Wild | 5–4 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Minnesota Wild: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Calgary Flames: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Wild13-3-4 Central Division, 1st · W1
- Wild rating1556 4th of 32, 19 games
- Flames8-9-1 Pacific Division, 5th · W1
- Flames rating1456 29th of 32, 18 games
More NHL games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Minnesota Wild 13-3-4
National Hockey League · Central Division · 1st · streak W1
No stances yet today on $WILD: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Minnesota Wild bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Calgary Flames 8-9-1
National Hockey League · Pacific Division · 5th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $FLAMES: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Calgary Flames bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Wild 61% to win. Projected score Wild 3.0, Flames 2.5; spread Wild −0.5, total 5.5. Polymarket 67% for the Wild. Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames, Thu, Nov 19, 8:00 PM ET.