Philadelphia Flyers vs Calgary Flames prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerFlames 52%
- Projected scoreFlames 3.1, Flyers 2.9
- Model spreadeven total 6
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Philadelphia Flyers or Calgary Flames: the bandwagon
Axle 48–52Market 50–50
Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Philadelphia Flyers vs Calgary Flames live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Philadelphia Flyers vs Calgary Flames team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | PHI | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI– | CGY– |
| Average win probability | PHI– | CGY– |
| Longest scoring run | PHI– | CGY– |
| Time leading | PHI– | CGY– |
Philadelphia Flyers vs Calgary Flames model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | CGY win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:46 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:46 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:23 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:53 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:43 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:38 PM ET | 52% | +1 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:45 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:45 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:41 PM ET | 51% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:44 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:56 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:46 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 10:51 PM ET | 52% | +1 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 51% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:44 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:14 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 50% | — |
- Ratings
- CGY 1461 · PHI 1471
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Flyers vs Flames odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NHL marketKalshi prices the Flames at 49%, Polymarket at 52% (3 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 52%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | PHI | CGY | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 51% | 49% | ||
| Polymarket | 48% | 52% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 48% | 52% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Philadelphia Flyers vs Calgary Flames prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Flames the favorite, with a 52% chance to win; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 6. Ratings: Flames 1461 (29th of 32), Flyers 1471 (25th). The Flames are 7-8 in the Pacific Division; the Flyers are 4-9-4 in the Metropolitan Division. The Flames have won 3 of their last 5; the Flyers 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Flames won 5, the Flyers 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Philadelphia Flyers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Minnesota Wild | L 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Mammoth | W 6–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington Capitals | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Columbus Blue Jackets | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Anaheim Ducks | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup |
Calgary Flames
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at San Jose Sharks | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado Avalanche | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Seattle Kraken | W 6–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Edmonton Oilers | L 0–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Toronto Maple Leafs | W 5–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames | 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| Calgary Flames at Philadelphia Flyers | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Calgary Flames at Philadelphia Flyers | 6–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames | 3–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| Calgary Flames at Philadelphia Flyers | 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames | 3–4 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Philadelphia Flyers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Calgary Flames: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Flyers4-9-4 Metropolitan Division, 8th · L1
- Flyers rating1471 25th of 32, 17 games
- Flames7-8 Pacific Division, 6th · W1
- Flames rating1461 29th of 32, 15 games
Philadelphia Flyers 4-9-4
National Hockey League · Metropolitan Division · 8th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $FLYERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Philadelphia Flyers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Calgary Flames 7-8
National Hockey League · Pacific Division · 6th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $FLAMES: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Calgary Flames bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Flames 52% to win. Projected score Flames 3.1, Flyers 2.9; spread even, total 6. Kalshi 49%, Polymarket 52% for the Flames. Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames, Sun, Nov 8, 7:00 PM ET.