Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Stars at Golden Knights: Bandwagon's model makes the Golden Knights a 54% favorite (Golden Knights −0.5).
Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Golden Knights a 54% chance to win.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NHL marketEach bar is the chance that the Golden Knights win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 54%.
The largest gap is 3 points: Polymarket has the Golden Knights at 57%, Axle at 54%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before puck drop
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before puck drop. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has the Golden Knights
All NHL ratings| DAL | VGK | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1540 8th of 32 | 1545 7th of 32 |
| Record | 10-5-2 | 12-5-2 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | W3 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 4 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | VGK win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 9:48 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:48 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 1:02 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:12 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:08 PM ET | 54% | +1 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:47 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:47 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:42 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:52 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:47 PM ET | 53% | −1 |
| Nov 7, 10:32 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:05 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:55 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:40 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:49 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:44 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 54% | — |
Stars vs Golden Knights odds on Polymarket
Every NHL marketPolymarket prices the Golden Knights at 57%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 54%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | DAL | VGK | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 43% | 57% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 46% | 54% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Golden Knights a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 54% chance to win. The model total is 6. Ratings: Golden Knights 1545 (7th of 32), Stars 1540 (8th). The Golden Knights are 12-5-2 in the Pacific Division; the Stars are 10-5-2 in the Central Division. The Golden Knights have won 3 of their last 5; the Stars 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Golden Knights won 2, the Stars 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Dallas Stars
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs San Jose Sharks | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Columbus Blue Jackets | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington Capitals | W 6–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Columbus Blue Jackets | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Montreal Canadiens | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup |
Vegas Golden Knights
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Buffalo Sabres | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Detroit Red Wings | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Pittsburgh Penguins | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Boston Bruins | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Jersey Devils | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars | 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights | 5–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights | 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars | 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights | 2–3 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Dallas Stars: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Vegas Golden Knights: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Stars10-5-2 Central Division, 4th · W1
- Stars rating1540 8th of 32, 17 games
- Golden Knights12-5-2 Pacific Division, 2nd · W3
- Golden Knights rating1545 7th of 32, 19 games
More NHL games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Dallas Stars 10-5-2
National Hockey League · Central Division · 4th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $STARS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Dallas Stars bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Vegas Golden Knights 12-5-2
National Hockey League · Pacific Division · 2nd · streak W3
No stances yet today on $GOLDENKNIGHTS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Vegas Golden Knights bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Golden Knights 54% to win. Projected score Golden Knights 3.1, Stars 2.9; spread Golden Knights −0.5, total 6. Polymarket 57% for the Golden Knights. Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights, Thu, Nov 19, 10:00 PM ET.