San Jose Sharks vs Dallas Stars prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerStars 67%
- Projected scoreStars 3.5, Sharks 2.5
- Model spreadStars −1 total 6
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
San Jose Sharks or Dallas Stars: the bandwagon
Axle 33–67Market 27–73
San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
San Jose Sharks vs Dallas Stars live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
San Jose Sharks vs Dallas Stars team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | SJ | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJ– | DAL– |
| Average win probability | SJ– | DAL– |
| Longest scoring run | SJ– | DAL– |
| Time leading | SJ– | DAL– |
San Jose Sharks vs Dallas Stars model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | DAL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:46 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:46 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:23 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:53 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:43 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:45 PM ET | 67% | +1 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:45 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:44 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:41 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:56 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:46 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:42 PM ET | 66% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 12:29 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:42 PM ET | 65% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 66% | +4 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:44 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:14 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 62% | — |
- Ratings
- DAL 1542 · SJ 1441
- Home spread
- −1
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Sharks vs Stars odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NHL marketKalshi prices the Stars at 72%, Polymarket at 74% (2 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 67%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | SJ | DAL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 28% | 72% | ||
| Polymarket | 26% | 74% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 33% | 67% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
San Jose Sharks vs Dallas Stars prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Stars a 1-point favorite at home, with a 67% chance to win. The model total is 6. Ratings: Stars 1542 (5th of 32), Sharks 1441 (30th). The Stars are 9-5-1 in the Central Division; the Sharks are 7-8-1 in the Pacific Division. The Stars have won 3 of their last 5; the Sharks 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Stars won 5, the Sharks 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
San Jose Sharks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Calgary Flames | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ottawa Senators | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Vancouver Canucks | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Buffalo Sabres | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Boston Bruins | L 4–6 | – | – | matchup |
Dallas Stars
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Washington Capitals | W 6–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Columbus Blue Jackets | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Montreal Canadiens | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Jersey Devils | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York Islanders | W 6–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars | 0–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks | 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks | 5–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars | 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks | 8–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars | 2–5 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
San Jose Sharks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Dallas Stars: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Sharks7-8-1 Pacific Division, 5th · L2
- Sharks rating1441 30th of 32, 16 games
- Stars9-5-1 Central Division, 3rd · W2
- Stars rating1542 5th of 32, 15 games
San Jose Sharks 7-8-1
National Hockey League · Pacific Division · 5th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $SHARKS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San Jose Sharks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Dallas Stars 9-5-1
National Hockey League · Central Division · 3rd · streak W2
No stances yet today on $STARS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Dallas Stars bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars
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Model: Stars 67% to win. Projected score Stars 3.5, Sharks 2.5; spread Stars −1, total 6. Kalshi 72%, Polymarket 74% for the Stars. San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars, Sat, Nov 7, 8:00 PM ET.