Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerCanadiens 56%
- Projected scoreCanadiens 3.4, Maple Leafs 3.1
- Model spreadCanadiens −0.5 total 6.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Montreal Canadiens or Toronto Maple Leafs: the bandwagon
Axle 56–44Market 51–49
Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | MTL | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL– | TOR– |
| Average win probability | MTL– | TOR– |
| Longest scoring run | MTL– | TOR– |
| Time leading | MTL– | TOR– |
Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | TOR win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:46 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:46 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:23 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET | 44% | +1 |
| Nov 3, 9:53 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:43 PM ET | 43% | −1 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:45 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:44 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:56 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:46 PM ET | 44% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:42 PM ET | 43% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 44% | +2 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:44 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:14 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 42% | — |
- Ratings
- TOR 1473 · MTL 1541
- Home spread
- +0.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET · 2026-11-05 03:21 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NHL marketKalshi prices the Canadiens at 51%, Polymarket at 52% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 56%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | MTL | TOR | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 51% | 49% | ||
| Polymarket | 52% | 48% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 56% | 44% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Canadiens a 0.5-point favorite, with a 56% chance to win. The model total is 6.5. Ratings: Maple Leafs 1473 (24th of 32), Canadiens 1541 (6th). The Maple Leafs are 8-7-2 in the Atlantic Division; the Canadiens are 9-3-3 in the Atlantic Division. The Maple Leafs have won 2 of their last 5; the Canadiens 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Maple Leafs won 0, the Canadiens 6.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Montreal Canadiens
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Winnipeg Jets | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Pittsburgh Penguins | W 5–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dallas Stars | W 5–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at St. Louis Blues | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Winnipeg Jets | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Utah Mammoth | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Vancouver Canucks | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Seattle Kraken | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Calgary Flames | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Edmonton Oilers | W 7–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs | 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs | 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens | 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens | 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens | 2–5 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Montreal Canadiens: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Toronto Maple Leafs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Canadiens9-3-3 Atlantic Division, 2nd · L1
- Canadiens rating1541 6th of 32, 15 games
- Maple Leafs8-7-2 Atlantic Division, 6th · L1
- Maple Leafs rating1473 24th of 32, 17 games
Montreal Canadiens 9-3-3
National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 2nd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $CANADIENS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Montreal Canadiens bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Toronto Maple Leafs 8-7-2
National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 6th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $LEAFS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Toronto Maple Leafs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs
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Model: Canadiens 56% to win. Projected score Canadiens 3.4, Maple Leafs 3.1; spread Canadiens −0.5, total 6.5. Kalshi 51%, Polymarket 52% for the Canadiens. Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs, Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM ET.