Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos prediction, odds and picks, November 22, 2026
- Projected winnerBroncos 81%
- Projected scoreBroncos 29, Raiders 18
- Model spreadBroncos −11 total 47.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Las Vegas Raiders or Denver Broncos: the bandwagon
Axle 19–81Market –
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | LV | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LV– | DEN– |
| Average win probability | LV– | DEN– |
| Longest scoring run | LV– | DEN– |
| Time leading | LV– | DEN– |
Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos odds
Every stored line
| Stored | DEN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 81% | — |
- Ratings
- DEN 1634 · LV 1411
- Home spread
- −11
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Broncos a 11-point favorite at home, with a 81% chance to win. The model total is 47.5. Ratings: Broncos 1634 (2nd of 32), Raiders 1411 (25th). The Broncos are 6-2 in the AFC West; the Raiders are 4-4 in the AFC West. The Broncos have won 4 of their last 5; the Raiders 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Broncos won 4, the Raiders 2. The roster source lists 10 Broncos and 7 Raiders players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Las Vegas Raiders
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at New York Jets | W 38–33 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Los Angeles Rams | L 21–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Buffalo Bills | L 30–33 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New England Patriots | L 17–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kansas City Chiefs | L 27–30 | – | – | matchup |
Denver Broncos
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Kansas City Chiefs | W 28–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arizona Cardinals | W 30–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Seattle Seahawks | W 17–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Los Angeles Chargers | W 23–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Francisco 49ers | L 14–24 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders | 24–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos | 7–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders | 29–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos | 18–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders | 14–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos | 17–16 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Las Vegas Raiders: Patrick Johnson DE, Carter Runyon TE, Brennan Jackson LB, Chigozie Anusiem CB, Chris Collier RB, Keyron Crawford DE, Justin Pickett G
Denver Broncos: RJ Harvey RB, Jonah Elliss LB, Pat Bryant WR, Tyler Badie RB, Caleb Lohner TE, Levelle Bailey LB, Frank Crum OT, Michael Deiter C, Nick Gargiulo G, Matt Henningsen DE
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Raiders4-4 AFC West, 3rd · W1
- Raiders rating1411 25th of 32, 8 games
- Broncos6-2 AFC West, 1st · W4
- Broncos rating1634 2nd of 32, 8 games
National Football League · AFC West · 3rd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $RAIDERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Las Vegas Raiders bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Denver Broncos 6-2
National Football League · AFC West · 1st · streak W4
No stances yet today on $BRONCOS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Denver Broncos bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Broncos 81% to win. Projected score Broncos 29, Raiders 18; spread Broncos −11, total 47.5. Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos, Sun, Nov 22, 4:25 PM ET.