Kickoff, 0-0, and the bandwagon is empty: zero crowd picks so far. The model has the Commanders at 49 percent, a hair under even, which tilts it toward the Eagles for now.
NFL · · Northwest Stadium · every National Football League line
Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreEagles 10, Commanders 27 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerEagles 51%
- Model spreadeven total 46
- Margin17
- Total37 projected 46
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Philadelphia Eagles or Washington Commanders: the bandwagon
Axle 51–49Market 30–70
FinalPregame: WSH 49%Baseline: WSH 55.7% (+6.8)Big swing: 23.5 ptsClutch window: 10:26
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| WSH | 3 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 27 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+2.1 points for WSH over the last 5:00
Big swing23.5 ptstoward WSH at 25:04 of game time
Clutch window10:26within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineWSH 55.7%game average, +6.8 points from the pregame 48.9%
Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | PHI | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | PHI268 | WSH339 |
| First downs | PHI17 | WSH16 |
| 3rd down | PHI5/15 | WSH5/13 |
| 4th down | PHI1/2 | WSH0/0 |
| Turnovers | PHI2 | WSH1 |
| Penalties-yards | PHI6-30 | WSH9-70 |
| Yards per play | PHI3.9 | WSH5.9 |
| Time of possession | PHI33:31 | WSH26:29 |
| Red zone | PHI1/2 | WSH2/3 |
Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | PHI | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI10 | WSH27 |
| Average win probability | PHI44% | WSH56% |
| Longest scoring run | PHI+10 | WSH+27 |
| Time leading | PHI16:14 | WSH30:17 |
Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 7:41 PM ET
Eagles51%
Win chanceCommanders49%
SpreadPKclosing model spread
Total46
Moneyline−105away / +105homeaway / home
Line movementWSH win chance, 19 stored lines
+1 pts for WSH between Oct 28 and Nov 1
54%42%
Oct 28Oct 30Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | WSH win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 7:41 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:41 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:36 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:29 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:13 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 49% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 48% | — |
- Ratings
- WSH 1407 · PHI 1452
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 1, 7:41 PM ET · 2026-11-02 00:41 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Philadelphia Eagles 10, Washington Commanders 27. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 31, 5:30 AM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 1, 2:58 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · 1 pick
Be the first on the bandwagon
EaglesCommanders
Neutrals only–
EaglesCommanders
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Commanders–
1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Eagles vs Commanders odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi had the Eagles at 30% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 30% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 51% when last read, .
| Source | PHI | WSH | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 30% | 70% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 30% | 70% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 51% | 49% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, WSH: +21Polymarket minus model, WSH: +21
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Eagles the favorite, with a 51% chance to win; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 46. Ratings: Commanders 1436 (22nd of 32), Eagles 1424 (24th). The Commanders are 2-4-1 in the NFC East; the Eagles are 2-6 in the NFC East. The Commanders have won 2 of their last 5; the Eagles 0 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Commanders won 2, the Eagles 4. The roster source lists 8 Commanders and 6 Eagles players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Philadelphia Eagles
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Washington Commanders | L 10–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Dallas Cowboys | L 21–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Carolina Panthers | L 14–25 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Jacksonville Jaguars | L 17–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Los Angeles Rams | L 20–24 | – | – | matchup |
Washington Commanders
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Philadelphia Eagles | W 27–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Francisco 49ers | L 17–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York Giants | T 27–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Indianapolis Colts | L 13–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Seattle Seahawks | W 33–31 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles | 22–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles | 24–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders | 29–18 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles | 23–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders | 33–36 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles | 18–26 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts QB, Will Shipley RB, Johnny Wilson WR, Andre' Sam S, Tariq Castro-Fields CB, Tucker Large S
Washington Commanders: Terry McLaurin WR, Javon Kinlaw DT, Daron Payne DT, Laremy Tunsil OT, Jeremy McNichols RB, Leo Chenal LB, Trey Amos CB, Jer'Zhan Newton DT
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Eagles2-6 NFC East, 4th · L6
- Eagles rating1424 24th of 32, 8 games
- Commanders2-4-1 NFC East, 3rd · W1
- Commanders rating1436 22nd of 32, 7 games
National Football League · NFC East · 4th · streak L6
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $EAGLES
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $EAGLES
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $EAGLES
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $EAGLES: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Philadelphia Eagles bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Washington Commanders 2-4-1
National Football League · NFC East · 3rd · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $COMMANDERS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $COMMANDERS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $COMMANDERS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $COMMANDERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Washington Commanders bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
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